Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021.  10yr yields were close to 1.50% by the end of the day and the next significant ceiling at 1.62% seemed safely overhead.  But only a few hours into the new trading day, 10yr yields surged up to 1.64+, the highest levels in more than year.  Average mortgage rates are close to being able to say the same (highest in 11 months).  Today's rout provides a wake up call as to the nature of the rising rate environment.   Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Core Producer Prices (y/y) 2.5 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:51 AM Much weaker overnight with big hits coming at random times for no apparent reason (speaks to embedded bearish momentum, technicals, and positioning).  10yr up almost 7bps to 1.604%.  UMBS 2.5 coupons down a quarter point. 10:35 AM 10yr has broken the 1.62% ceiling, triggering additional stop-loss selling (up and over 1.63%).  UMBS 2.5s were down nearly half a point at their weakest levels, but have recovered a few ticks in the past few minutes.  Either way, not what we were hoping to see this morning on top of earlier weakness we weren't hoping to see today.  02:48 PM All of today's damage was done by 10:30am and things have been very flat since the last update.  At this point, whatever happens in the last 2 hours of trading doesn't have any major implications for next week.  10yr is up 10bps at 1.63% and 2.5 UMBS are down more than 3/8ths of a point at 103.

March 12, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021.  10yr yields were close to 1.50% by the end o... (read more) Housing News Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes Fannie Mae has sent lenders an advanced notice that additional risk criteria is coming for loans it acquires from lenders. Lender Letter 2021-08 lays out changes mandated by amendments to the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (PSPA) between t... (read more) Housing News Forbearances Reach Their Lowest Levels in Almost a Year Black Knight notes a large improvement in forbearance statistics during the week ended March 9. The number of loans in active plans dropped by 77,000 over the week, the largest single week decline since early January, and lowered the number of plans ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Much Less Volatile Week, But Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for... (read more) Rob Chrisman Fulfillment, MLO, Product Dev. Jobs; Mail, CRM, Presentation, Digital Products; Freddie and Fannie Shifts A year ago… remember when you couldn’t find toilet paper for sale? Now you can’t find a house for sale. But there are plenty of Agency MBS and other debt for sale. Just as borrowers are lowering their debt load by refinancing their... (read more) Housing News Getting a Mortgage Isn't Getting Any Easier Access to mortgage credit remained unchanged in February after making modest gains over the previous four months. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Mortgage Credit Access Index, was remained at the January level of 124.6. A lower score indica... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.67% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.91% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.91% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% -0.03 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.07 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.02 +0.21 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.07 +0.26 UMBS 6.0 101.68 +0.17 GNMA 5.5 100.19 +0.19 GNMA 6.0 101.50 +0.14 Pricing as of: 6/30 6:23PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2290 -0.0523 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.715 -0.035 5 YR Treasury 3.804 -0.031 7 YR Treasury 3.990 -0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.225 -0.057 30 YR Treasury 4.776 -0.055 Pricing as of: 6/30 6:23PM EST Latest Video These are Fed Chair Powell's top challenges Producer price index meets expectations in February Preliminary March Consumer sentiment comes in at 83.0, higher than expected 10-year yield volatility led by inflation fears, stimulus: Defiance ETFs CI... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog South Carolina Real Estate in February: Sales Up 13% YoY, Inventory Down 46% YoY Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Share of Second Home and Investor Mortgage Applications Reuters Take Five: Week of the central banks Calculated Risk Blog Mortgage Equity Withdrawal in Q4 2020 CNBC European markets pull back as Treasury yields climb again Redfin Housing Market Update: Home Prices Increased a Record 17%, Pending Sales Up 19% From a Year Earlier CNBC The housing market stands at a tipping point after a stunningly successful year during the pandemic CNBC The housing market stands at a tipping point after a stunningly successful year during the pandemic Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 26.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Reuters Biden signs $1.9 trillion stimulus bill into law on U.S. lockdown anniversary CNBC Stimulus checks could start hitting bank accounts this weekend, White House says Calculated Risk Blog Portland Real Estate in February: Sales Up 4% YoY, Inventory Down 44% YoY Reuters U.S. households ended 2020 with record $130.2 trillion in wealth, Fed says

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