Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech? Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar today, but they surprised markets by dropping a policy change on their website.  Suddenly, the journalistic coverage of today's Powell speech no longer seems insanely presumptuous.  But did the Fed really say anything new?  And if not, why are markets reacting like they are?  We'll discuss this in today's video. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 1.006m vs 1.0m f'cast Q2 GDP (1st revision) -31.7 vs -32.5 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Moderately stronger to start after quiet overnight trading.  Treasuries were unchanged until 3am, then rallied modestly with European bonds.  Stocks are effectively unchanged and MBS are opening 3 ticks (0.09) higher. 09:23 AM Both stocks and bonds improved moderately but quickly as the Fed surprised the market with an actual policy document on its website (more on that HERE).  10yr yields were down more than 3bps for a moment, but have bounced 1bp up to .667.  2.0 UMBS rallied and bounced as well--currently right in line with pre-Powell highs.  Even as this is typed, a potential knee-jerk bounce is taking shape.  More to follow if that continues... 09:46 AM Knee-jerk confirmed.  MBS down nearly a quarter point from the post-Powell highs.  10yr yields up 2.5bps on the day.   01:09 PM 7yr auction was decent--not decent enough to change bond market momentum all by itself, but yields are off their highs by just over 1bp.  MBS are down only an eighth of a point on the day.

August 27, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Here's What's Up With Today's Big Reaction To The Fed Has Everything Changed After Powell Speech? Powell's speech was the only Fed communication on the calendar today, but they surprised markets by dropping a policy change on their website.  Suddenly, the j... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch What's Going On With Mortgage Rates? A Definitive Guide As Of August 26th, 2020 With several major developments and interesting milestones in the mortgage world, I'm seeing a lot more confusion than normal. So let's clear it up without too many extra words or meaningless rants. I heard rates were 1.99%. What's up with that? Ever... (read more) Rob Chrisman Virtual job fair, MLO, CD, AE, Ops Jobs; VOE, VOI, Pricing Tools; Conventional Price Shifts While Louisiana is focused on Hurricane Laura, 2,200 miles away California is focused on its wildfires… and regulations. Remember that about 25 percent of the United States’ residential loan production comes out of California, so plenty ... (read more) Housing News Highest Home Sales Since 2005. Can It Last? July marked the third consecutive outsized increase in the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) produced by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) It also was the third of three July sales measures to surprise analysts. NAR said the PHSI, a leadi... (read more) Housing News Freddie Mac Reminds Disaster Victims: Mortgage Relief is Available While the Gulf Coast escaped the threat of two simultaneous hurricane hits, the remaining storm, Hurricane Laura, looks like an historically dangerous one. It, and the wildfires ravaging California, has prompted Freddie Mac to restate its disaster re... (read more) Housing News Freddie Mac Delinquencies Jump for Second Month Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 20.0 percent in July compared to a 14.2 percent gain in June. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.476 trillion compared to $2.436 tr... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.67% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.91% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.91% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% -0.03 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.07 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.04 -0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.06 -0.01 UMBS 6.0 101.70 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 100.13 -0.06 GNMA 6.0 101.53 +0.03 Pricing as of: 7/1 1:19AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2114 -0.0132 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.717 +0.002 5 YR Treasury 3.784 -0.020 7 YR Treasury 3.973 -0.017 10 YR Treasury 4.209 -0.016 30 YR Treasury 4.753 -0.023 Pricing as of: 7/1 1:19AM EST Latest Video Fed's historic change is all about employment, not inflation: WSJ's Greg Ip Fed says it will seek to achieve 2% inflation over time—Here's what that me... Dallas Fed president Kaplan on path of monetary policy July pending home sales rose 5.9% versus 3.5% expected Around the Web CNBC Fed pledges to look at if the economy is working for lower-income communities when setting policy Brookings Institution Zoom is now critical infrastructure. That's a concern NPR Fed Prepared To Let Economy Run Hotter Redfin A Quarter of San Francisco Home Sellers Are Dropping Their Prices, the Highest Rate on Record Calculated Risk Blog Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Monetary Policy Framework Review CNBC Watch Fed Chair Powell discuss the inflation outlook from annual symposium with live updates Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Revised up to -31.7% Annual Rate NAHB Eye on Housing Top Products Used in New Residential Construction CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1 million, as expected CNBC Nearly 35 million households will lose their utility shutoff protections over the next month CNBC Treasury yields flat ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech Federal Reserve Federal Open Market Committee announces approval of updates to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy Redfin The Typical Home Pending Sale Is 3.7% Bigger Than Last Year, Sales of Large Homes Up 21% as People Seek More Space Amid Pandemic

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