Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next? Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data as a key source of motivation, nor are they playing by the normal set of rules.  Coronavirus has rewritten those rules.  How long can this all-time-low rate environment last and how do we approach it from a lock/float standpoint? Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) -  Fed 30yr UMBS Buying    ISM Non Manufacturing 57.1 vs 50.1 f'cast ISM Business Activity 66.0 vs 49.0 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:18 AM Bond yields and stocks moved higher out of the gate in the overnight session. Both generally remained elevated into the domestic trading hours.  10yr yields are up 2.8bps at .696 and UMBS 2.0 are down just over an eighth of a point. 10:05 AM Brief and limited reaction to ISM Non-Manufacturing data.  Bonds hit weakest levels for a moment, but are already (maybe) bouncing back. 12:36 PM The market appears to be on a 4-day weekend.  Extremely flat during domestic hours so far.  Both stocks and bonds. 03:07 PM A bit more movement heading into the 3pm CME close for bonds.  10yr yields at lows of day.  MBS prices up an eighth of a point with 2.0 coupons up to 102.5.  Stocks off highs, but still 1% better on the day.

July 6, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 6, 2020 Huge Housing Rebound, All-Time Low Rates, But At What Cost? Thu, Jul 2, 2020 3:26PM This week's economic data included the biggest-ever gain in Pending Home Sales, a leading indicator for the housing market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates pushed down to new all-time lows yet again. But at what cost? The most pessimistic way to explain the surge in home sales is to say it was only made possible by the record-setting declines in the past few months. That's mostly true, but it fails to give credit to what the industry and government officials have been doing to help jump start economic activity. Would sales bounce back like this without all-time low mortgage rates and a stock market ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/15 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.29 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.42 +0.02   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.035 -0.031   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next? Mon, Jul 6, 2020 3:44PM Record High MBS Prices, Record Low Rates. What Next? Bonds and rates clearly aren't looking at economic data as a key source of motivation, nor are they playing by the normal set of rules.  Coronavirus has rewritten those rules.  How long can this all-time-low rate environment last and how do we approach it... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.97 +0.33 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.15 UMBS 6.0 102.45 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.15 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 101.25 +0.11 GNMA 6.0 102.06 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/15 3:32PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.534 -0.019 5 YR Treasury 3.601 -0.029 7 YR Treasury 3.785 -0.031 10 YR Treasury 4.034 -0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.654 -0.028 Pricing as of: 9/15 3:32PM EST Other News More Covid Data Rolls in, Are Refis are Here to Stay? Mon, Jul 6, 2020 11:24AM Black Knight has again taken a look at the number of Americans who could benefit significantly from refinancing their first mortgages, but the facts are shifting almost faster than they can report them. In its current Mortgage Monitor , the company reports that 90 percent of homeowners who have sufficient equity in their homes and the qualifying credit to re... (read more) Construction Spending Showing Promise Mon, Jul 6, 2020 2:13PM Despite any impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, construction spending is still largely managing to stay ahead of its 2019 levels . The U.S. Census Bureau said total spending in May was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.356 trillion, down 2.1 percent from April's $1.386 trillion rate. The April rate was revised significantly higher from the $1.346 tri... (read more) Forbearance Plans Resume Downtrend After Last Week's Uptick Mon, Jul 6, 2020 9:47AM The number of homeowners in COVID-19 forbearance dropped sharply this week, to the lowest level since the first week of May. The number of plans which hit a peak on May 22 then declined slowly over the next three weeks but shot up by nearly 80,000 loan plans during the week ended June 23. Black Knight's survey of mortgage loan servicers found a resumption of... (read more) DPA, Leads, PMI Products; Investors Ruminate on Employment Data Mon, Jul 6, 2020 8:44AM Here’s a blunt reminder of what can go dramatically wrong in a fireworks stand. And here’s a blunt email that I received over the weekend. “Rob, what don’t people understand? If someone is threatened with a potentially fatal illness, the last thing on their mind is buying the latest Apple phone, a new car, a suit, a new computer, what... (read more) Latest Video SBA and Treasury to release names of largest PPP loan recipients Coronavirus mortgage bailouts see largest one-week drop Henrich: Everybody is deferring to the "Fed put" as the primary reason for ... Four experts break down the blowout June jobs report Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog By Request: Percent Permanent Job Losers by Recession CNBC Dr. Anthony Fauci says the average age of U.S. coronavirus patients has dropped by 15 years as Sun Belt states gets hit CNBC Stocks continue to rise amid surge in U.S. coronavirus casesFour experts on what's next Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for May, Cash-Out Refinance Activity Declined CNBC 'Interest-only' mortgages might make sense in some situations, but beware the risks CNBC Companies returned $30 billion in small-business loans from PPP Calculated Risk Blog ISM Non-Manufacturing Index increased to 57.1% in June Calculated Risk Blog Six High Frequency Indicators for a Recovery CNBC Refinancing your mortgage could put cash in your pocket here's how to find out if it's right for you Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Declined Calculated Risk Blog Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 32% of Households Expect Loss in Income; 24.5% Concerned about Housing Brookings Institution Class Notes: Economic Activity Amid COVID-19, Homeownership and Wealth, and More CNBC U.S. coronavirus cases soar by more than 50,600 in record single-day jump

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