There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out.  Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-time lows.  Many others will be slightly above.  And on average, rates will remain in trend that's better described as flat instead of falling .  What's wrong with that?  Nothing really-- especially when rates are in line with record lows.  There is something that's interesting about it though, and it's easy to see when we compare MBS price movement to average rates.   Because MBS trade in price, the easiest way to see correlation with rates is to invert one of the lines (otherwise they'd move in opposite directions).  All that to preface the following chart which shows UMBS 2.0 prices inverted (the lower the orange line goes, the higher MBS prices are).  During more normal times, mortgage rates and the MBS line would be right on top of each other.  This time, not so much. I'm not giving you this heads-up to frustrate anyone or to make you pound your fists on the table and demand lower rates.  Quite the opposite!  This chart should be exciting.  If lenders tried to run this race like the hare, they'd cause bigger problems for prepayment speeds than we're already seeing.  The athletic tortoise approach is what will give you and your clients the best combination of low rates and stability.  And to be sure, rates can and will move lower if MBS remain in this territory.  But the most exciting part is the implication that rates have some insulation against any potential bond market weakness--something we'll start to look out for if 10yr yields make a strong move back up and over the recently broken range boundary at .58%. Today is the last trading day of the month.  As such, there can be some seemingly random momentum due to certain compulsory trades among money managers with deadlines to meet.  MBS Live members can read more on that in this primer.

July 31, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 31, 2020 Mortgage Rates Fall Nicely, But The Going Gets Tougher From Here Wed, Jul 29, 2020 4:34PM Mortgage rates improved nicely overnight. The average lender's morning rates were very close to the lowest levels ever . This was a distinct possibility based on yesterday afternoon's bond market movement. Mortgage rates are most directly influenced by mortgage-backed bonds which trade thousands of times a day. It's not feasible for mortgage lenders to change rate quotes that frequently. Instead, they wait for the market to move by a certain amount before making any changes. By yesterday afternoon, we'd clearly seen enough movement as several lenders had already updated rates for the better. F... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/15 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.29 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.45 +0.05   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.040 -0.026   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Month-End; Breakout Confirmation; Mortgage Rates Stuck? Fri, Jul 31, 2020 8:50AM There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out.  Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-time lows.  Many others will be slightly above.  And on average, rates will remain in trend that's better described as flat instead of falling .  What's wrong with that?  Nothing rea... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.91 +0.28 UMBS 5.5 101.29 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.45 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.24 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.23 +0.09 GNMA 6.0 101.98 -0.02 Pricing as of: 9/15 7:16PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.537 -0.016 5 YR Treasury 3.600 -0.030 7 YR Treasury 3.792 -0.024 10 YR Treasury 4.040 -0.026 30 YR Treasury 4.661 -0.021 Pricing as of: 9/15 7:16PM EST Other News JD Power Ranks Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Thu, Jul 30, 2020 5:34PM The performance of mortgage loan servicers is lacking in the eyes of many of their customers, even this early in the pandemic driven recession. J.D. Power's 2020 U.S. Primarily Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Study found customers reporting long wait times to speak with customer service representatives and little proactive communication on the part of the com... (read more) Fannie and Freddie Remain Profitable Despite Mortgage Delinquencies Thu, Jul 30, 2020 5:32PM Both government supported enterprises (GSE) reported increased profits in the second quarter of 2020 compared to Q1. Fannie Mae said its net comprehensive income was $2.53 billion compared to $476 million and Freddie Mac's quarterly results were 1.94 billion, an increase of $1.32 billion from the previous period. Both companies had reported extraordinarily l... (read more) Pending Home Sales Continue Remarkable Rebound Wed, Jul 29, 2020 10:59AM Pending home sales soared again in June, although the liftoff was relatively shallow compared to the 43 percent increase in May. The National Association of Realtors'® (NAR's) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts to purchase existing homes, rose 16.6 percent compared to May, and increased year-over-ye... (read more) Servicing, Appraisal, Sales Jobs; Broker, Valuation Products; FHA, and Ginnie Changes; HUD Addresses the Self-employed Fri, Jul 31, 2020 8:48AM Whether it is Northern Virginia or Lake Tahoe , we’re running out of houses. The pandemic has caused a buyer feeding frenzy away from apartments and city cores. Heck, I can hardly wait to sell my house! The problem is… where would I live? So I’ll pass. Like it or not, we are living in an economy controlled by a virus, relying on smart phon... (read more) Latest Video Evictions crisis could become a financial crisis, too—Here's how Jumbo, conforming rate spread at widest level since 2013: Financial analyst How commercial real estate companies are faring during the coronavirus pand... White House economist Joe LaVorgna: We're viewing massive GDP plunge as a '... 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