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Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently
"Because they were so much higher than they should have been in March and April..." Seriously, that's the reason mortgage rates have been able to move lower even as Treasury yields and MBS prices suggest moderately higher rates. We discuss this in greater detail in the video and in the Day Ahead.
Econ Data / Events
11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying
Market Movement Recap
08:20 AM Treasuries were stronger in Asia but yields moved higher during European hours. Equities markets at home and abroad generally followed the same pattern (i.e. prices were lower in Asia and higher in Europe). MBS are starting the day an eighth of a point weaker.
12:38 PM For the 2nd day in a row, the close of European markets is creating some small-scale volatility in the US. This time, it's in the other direction. Treasury yields are moving higher and MBS are back in line with the morning's lows (down about an eighth of a point on the day).
03:05 PM After the last entry, bonds weakened just a bit more before bouncing. MBS have made up almost half of those losses, but are still down an eighth of a point from the morning's highs. 10yr yields are up 1.3bps on the day at .68%. Lots of pressure from corporate bond issuance today (here's how that works).
MBS Commentary
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Here's The Only Reason Mortgage Rates Have Moved Lower Recently
"Because they were so much higher than they should have been in March and April..." Seriously, that's the reason mortgage rates have... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates were mixed today with some lenders improving and others moving higher. This isn't so much a factor of anything that happened today as much as it is about what lenders did yesterday. Specifically, the bond market (which underlies rate m... (read more)
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Housing News
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CoreLogic's report on April home prices, the first for that month, says that despite fears that home prices would "bottom out like they did in the Great Recession," they continued to accelerate reaching their highest annual growth since August 2018. ... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Curfews and civil unrest have replaced COVID in the news. Meanwhile, investors are watching record low debt issuance yields from companies like Amazon and Costco (1.50-1.62 percent 10-year notes, lowering their cost of capital dramatically). Low rate... (read more)
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Housing News
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Overall spending on construction fell in April, down 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.346 trillion from 1.387 trillion. This still left the rate 3.0 percent higher than it was in April 2019. On a non-adjusted basis, spending was... (read more)
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Housing News
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As was reported last week, new home sales in April were much, much better than expected. There may or may not be a cause and effect going on here, but two recent posts in the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) Eye on Housing blog indicat... (read more)
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