A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than expected, it pushes rates higher, all else equal. Today's reports were both stronger. ADP's monthly employment tally came in at 42k versus a median forecast of 25k. This isn't an especially large margin of victory, but it was enough to cause weakness in bonds earlier this morning.  Less than 2 hours later, the most widely-followed report on the health of the services sector also showed stronger-than-expected results. Bonds continued to weaken after that, ultimately forcing lenders to raise rates back to levels just under those seen in late September.   If things had been even a little bit worse, we'd be at the highest rates in just over 2 months.  As it stands, we're close enough. MND's 30yr fixed index rose to 6.37% today.  September 25th's level was 6.39, and that's as high as we've been since September 4th. In the bigger picture, rates are still much closer to 2025's lows as opposed to the highs, but there's been a palpable shift since the Fed meeting at the end of October. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

November 5, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.04%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.05%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 5, 2025 Mortgage Rates Near 2-Month Highs After Today's Econ Data Wed, Nov 5, 2025 4:08PM A common recent refrain is that the bond market (which dictates interest rates) is having to make do without many of the most important regularly-scheduled economic reports due to the government shutdown. While this means rates must "fly blind" on many of the days that would normally coincide with these government economic reports, there are other days that still play host to top-tier non-government data. Today boasted not one--but two such reports. Unfortunately for rates, both reports were unfriendly. Rates tend to benefit from economic weakness. As such, when reports are stronger than expe... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.37% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.09% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.40% +0.05 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.03% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.10% +0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 11/5 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.41% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/30 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.30% -0.07 0.58 15 Yr. Fixed 5.67% -0.07 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.38% -0.01 0.34 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/29 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.26 -0.32   95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.91 -0.16   97.47 101.40 10 YR Treasury 4.156 +0.071   3.932 4.780 2 Key Reports, 2 Reasons to Sell Bonds Wed, Nov 5, 2025 10:28AM Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data.  The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement.  In today's case, because of the government shutdown, it means we're getting a higher propor... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.19 -0.38 UMBS 5.0 99.28 -0.30 UMBS 5.5 100.91 -0.16 GNMA 4.5 97.39 -0.25 GNMA 5.0 99.50 -0.30 GNMA 5.5 100.75 -0.11 Pricing as of: 11/5 4:47PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.628 +0.051 5 YR Treasury 3.762 +0.064 7 YR Treasury 3.949 +0.073 10 YR Treasury 4.156 +0.071 30 YR Treasury 4.738 +0.072 Pricing as of: 11/5 4:47PM EST Other News Broker, Non-QM, Compliance, Workflow, AI, Tax Tools; ADP Jobs Data and Rates Wed, Nov 5, 2025 12:00PM “Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement de... (read more) Latest Video New York Fed: Household debt balance rises $197B to $18.6T Private payrolls rose 42,000 in October, more than expected and countering ... ISM non-manufacturing PMI comes in at 52.4 vs. 50.5 estimated S&P global U.S. services PMI comes in at 54.8 vs. 55.2 estimated Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog ISM Services Index Increased to 52.4% in October; Prices Paid Very High; Employment in Contraction for Fifth Consecutive Month Eye on Housing Bedrooms in New Single-Family Homes in 2024 CNBC Private payrolls rose 42,000 in October, more than expected and countering labor market fears, ADP says Calculated Risk Blog Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly Calculated Risk Blog House Prices to Income Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey CNBC Job openings in October slumped to the lowest level since early February, Indeed measure shows CNBC 10-year Treasury yield falls as investors weigh the state of the U.S. economy CNBC Commercial real estate deals are slowing, but these two beleaguered sectors are shining CNBC Fed Governor Lisa Cook, in first policy speech since Trump suit, says she's undecided on Dec. rate cut CNBC Palantir stock drops 7% on valuation concerns as CEO Karp rips short-seller 'market manipulation' Eye on Housing The International Builders Show: The Leading Economic Forecast Event of the Year CNBC Treasury yields little changed as government shutdown becomes longest in U.S. history

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