U.S. population growth slowed sharply between July 2024 and July 2025, rising just 1.8 million people (0.5 percent) to 341.8 million, the weakest growth since the early pandemic. This was driven primarily by a steep 54 percent drop in net international migration from 2.7 million to 1.3 million (the result of ICE?), while births and deaths remained relatively stable. Growth decelerated across nearly all states and regions, though the Midwest continued a modest resurgence with positive domestic migration for the first time this decade, South Carolina emerged as the fastest-growing state due to strong domestic inflows, and overall trends point to a structurally slower growth trajectory as both migration and natural population increase remain well below historical norms. Do you shift your lending based on demographics? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Asset Based Lending’s Kevin Rodman on balancing demand across its lending platforms by staying disciplined on risk, adapting to shifting investor behavior, and pursuing sustainable growth in a more cautious market cycle.)

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders

“PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), is committed to providing mortgage lenders with a sustainable funding source in an uncertain market. With over 30 years’ experience and a well-capitalized, diversified financial holding company, PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending provides confidence to meet our mortgage lending partners’ funding needs. With exceptional operational performance, and a focus on relationship-driven business geared towards long-term success, we do not dwell on unnecessary fees. With PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending there are NO non-usage fees, NO application or renewal fees, NO third party due diligence fees or Third Party Doc Custodians and NO interest charged on the day of loan settlement. If you attending the TMBA Annual Convention in Austin, TX and interested in learning more about PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending please contact Brent Amos or Deric Barnett.”

Still sorting docs manually? Still chasing missing pages? Your team has better things to do. Think of the loan file as an orchestra: dozens of instruments, each playing a different part. Without a conductor, it's noise. Sound familiar? It’s time to meet your new document maestro: idxgenius.ai by Indecomm. The moment a document lands in your LOS, idxgenius.ai retrieves it and gets to work, classifying every Closing Disclosure, Note, Credit Report, Title Policy, and beyond, validating against LOS data and business rules, and indexing each document automatically. No manual sorting. No re-keying. No guesswork. Just perfect harmony. That data becomes the single source of truth powering every downstream workflow: underwriting, QC, closing, servicing, and secondary markets. With 100 percent classification accuracy and 98–100 percent extraction accuracy across 1,200+ pre-mapped document types, every team gets clean, validated data exactly when they need it. Learn more at idxgenius.ai.

Most lenders don’t lose relationships. They lose visibility. After closing, communication often becomes less consistent… not intentionally, just operationally. Follow-up varies with production demands and competing priorities. Relationships that were once active become less visible, and opportunities for repeat, referral, and recapture business are missed, not because they aren’t there, simply because they aren’t being maintained. For many lenders, this remains difficult to solve at scale. MortgageHalo is built with that in mind. It operates as a self-driving system, built to strengthen relationships and activate, capture, and deliver opportunities from relationships already earned. Across the borrower lifecycle, MortgageHalo drives repeat business, referrals, and cross-sell, without increasing operational burden or relying on ongoing effort. MortgageHalo is built to provide relationship continuity. To learn more, contact Kirk King.

“eRESI is proudly celebrating seven years of growth in the non-QM market, and our commitment to our lending partners has never been stronger. Hear from Lisa Schreiber as she discusses our seven-year milestone, the Non-QM Heroes campaign, and what's next for eRESI in a recent Chrisman Report Podcast: Listen today. Through every market cycle, eRESI has consistently provided the non-QM capital base our partners depend on, built on dependable execution and lasting relationships. We continue to expand our non-QM product offerings, streamline purchasing and funding, and invest in technology that supports our partners’ growth. Ready to grow your non-QM production? Connect with the eRESI team at MBA's Secondary & Capital Markets Conference, May 17–20, New York City, and let's talk about how we can be your EDGE.”

“In today’s highly competitive mortgage market, every decision counts. Having access to comprehensive, reliable data is not only a want, but a need if you’re looking to make smarter, more strategic decisions to get ahead of the competition. With ICE, stand out from the rest by delivering robust data paired with the clarity, confidence, and insights you need to help drive your business forward. Our suite of nationwide property data covers 99.99 percent of all U.S. properties, across 3,100 counties, providing you with a complete view of the property landscape. And as a result of ICE’s commitment to data quality, you’ll gain access to information directly from the source, with rigorous validation processes applied so you always have accurate, reliable, and current data at your fingertips. Whether you're focused on market share analysis, prospecting, portfolio retention or optimizing your operations, ICE’s Property Data delivers the insights you need to perform and compete with confidence.”

If you've been in the mortgage industry over the past few years, you already know the market keeps getting tougher, more competitive, and more demanding. The difference between surviving or thriving comes down to the decisions you make right now. If you’re just waiting around for the market to improve, nothing will change. If you attend the Mastermind Summit, you will learn powerful, proven strategies that create real results regardless of market conditions. This year’s lineup of industry experts will show you step by step how to harness AI to generate high-quality leads, turn your database into a consistent revenue stream, build stronger realtor partnerships that last, and develop the leadership needed to scale your team with confidence. Make the decision to attend the Mastermind Summit 2026 in Las Vegas, June 24-26, and change the trajectory of your career and your life.

The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.

STRATMOR Subservicing Survey Closing Soon

Subservicing is taking on a larger role across the mortgage landscape, and with recent M&A activity continuing to reshape the market, lender perspectives have never been more important. STRATMOR’s subservicing survey is closing soon, and this is your final opportunity to participate. The survey explores several key questions, including which companies the market views as leading subservicers, what factors matter most when selecting a subservicing partner, and which capabilities and offerings lenders value most. Input is welcome from lenders who currently use a subservicer, as well as those who own MSRs or are considering retaining MSRs in the future. The survey takes less than 15 minutes to complete, requires no internal data, and responses will help inform a broader view of how the subservicing landscape is evolving. Participants will receive a summary of the findings once results are compiled. Take the survey.

In this week's VieauxPoint, Ethan Vieaux makes the case that the most valuable deals this spring may not come from new leads at all. He argues that most stalled pipelines are full of borrowers who were never truly lost -- just not ready when timing worked against them. With spring shifting buyer intent back into action, he outlines why re-engaging those conversations is often more efficient than starting from scratch, and what a low-friction outreach approach actually looks like. For a deeper look at why the easiest closes might already be sitting in your database, check out the article.

Capital Markets

Agile Trading Technologies built an electronic MBS platform to give you back something invaluable: time. When software can accurately trade in seconds and reduce multiple trade issues per settlement cycle that's not just efficiency: it's an opportunity. An opportunity to reconnect with a counterpart and have a real conversation about where this industry is heading. The lender and dealer relationship has always been built on trust, insight, and shared purpose. Technology can streamline the transaction, but it can never replace the relationship behind it. The best partnerships in this business don't live in the transaction, they're built in conversations. So, as you find yourself with a little more breathing room in your day, use it to reach out to your dealers. Invest that reclaimed time into the relationships that will carry the MBS market forward. The market changes. Relationships endure. Improve your relationships alongside your efficiency at trade-agile.com.

Turning to the markets, and inflation, there’s nothing that the Fed can do about fertilizer costs, and based on what I know about farm and ag profit margins, we can bet that cost increases will be passed along to consumers. Beef prices are already at record highs. Hopefully, the cease fire holds.

Both Iran and the Trump Administration claimed victory with the agreement of a ceasefire deal and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as there was no military escalation last night. In the run-up to Trump’s deadline, Treasuries fell and oil prices rose, lifting yields by as much as five basis points, with long-maturity tenors rising the most, though most of that was unwound as no further military intervention came to pass.

Market sentiment has shifted away from viewing the Middle East conflict primarily as a growth risk and toward its inflationary implications, as resilient U.S. economic data (notably, a strong March payrolls report) gives the Federal Reserve room to remain patient even amid rising energy costs. The persistence and trajectory of elevated oil prices introduce deeper uncertainty around consumer behavior and longer-term growth, even if strong data means the U.S. economy can shoulder some of the burden. Treasuries have entered a holding pattern as investors balance firm inflation signals against softening growth indicators.

The MBS market saw a broad-based increase in prepayment activity in March, with speeds rising to 12.0 CPR, driven largely by seasonal factors such as additional processing days and a temporary dip in mortgage rates that incentivized marginal refinance candidates. Prepayment behavior varied meaningfully across loan sizes and coupon levels, with lower loan balance pools offering more favorable characteristics depending on whether they traded above or below par, highlighting opportunities for investors in specified pools.

While most conventional and GNMA sectors experienced similar month-over-month increases, regional disparities persisted, with borrowers in states like Texas and Florida prepaying significantly slower than the national average despite refinance incentives. Issuance trends remained mixed, with declines in conventional balances (particularly in 15-year collateral) contrasting with modest growth in GNMA, while forward expectations point to a slight moderation in prepayment speeds as higher mortgage rates dampen refinance activity.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications declining slightly by 0.8 percent for the week ending April 3, as higher rates and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on overall activity. While purchase applications showed modest weekly gains, refinance demand fell and remained below last year’s levels, with many borrowers sidelined despite a small dip in the 30-year fixed rate to 6.51 percent.

Today’s only other data point is the EIA weekly petroleum status report (we don’t care), after which Treasury will auction $39 billion reopened 10-year notes, markets will receive remarks from San Francisco Fed President Daly and Fed Governor Waller, and the minutes from the March 17-18 FOMC meeting will be released. After the cease fire news, Agency MBS prices are better than Tuesday’s close by roughly .5, depending on coupon and maturity, the 2-year yielding 3.73, and the 10-year yielding 4.23 after closing yesterday at 4.34 percent.