Bank tellers and other bank employees are very aware of elder abuse, and train regularly to spot it. (Hopefully I won't be accused of it - my nearly 92 year old Dad really does prefer Costco hotdogs!) Seriously, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, is saying that a safe harbor should be written into federal privacy laws to protect advisers from legal liability if they report suspected financial abuse of the elderly. It is no coincidence that she is the chairwoman of the Senate Special Committee on Aging. "If they report in good faith, it seems to me they need some sort of protection, or many of them are not going to be willing to report," she said.
Freddie Mac produced a column from one of its economists that compared Census data showing homeownership rates by profession with BLS statistics projecting which profession will see the most growth. The fastest growing jobs, by and large, have subpar homeownership rates.
And a recent article published by Urban Institute draws from Freddie Mac's newest data that identifies two indicators of credit risk: probability of default and loss severity given default. Freddie's new analysis calculates loan severity by various credit event types and breaks down loss severity into numerous categories. According to Freddie's analysis, of the loans originated between 1999 and 2004, 2.3% experienced a credit event whereas in 2007, 12.6% of originated loans experienced a credit event. In 1999 to 2013, 22% of loans that experienced a credit event have been rehabilitated, with 11% of these loans having been modified and are now current. The remaining 78% of these loans are likely to experience a loss, and of these loans 54% have already been liquidated or have been foreclosed.
Loans liquidated from 1999 to 2004 experienced a loss of 23.2 cents for every dollar remaining at default, compared to a loss of 36-40 cents for every dollar remaining at default for loans liquidated between 2005 to 2008. Loans with higher LTVs have a greater chance of liquidating, with 63% of loans with an LTV of 60 or under are expected to liquidate compared to 81% of loans with LTVs over 80. Ironically, loss severity for loans with LTVs over 80 is much lower than for loans with LTVs between 60 and 80; because loans with LTVs over 80 require MI. Loans also originated between 1999 and 2004 experienced greater home price appreciation and loans with LTVs below 60 had more equity leading to lower loss severities among these loans. The smallest loan amounts also had the highest severity. For example, from 1999 to 2004, loans with a balance of $60,000 or less had a loss severity of 47%, compared to 31.3% for loans with a balance of $60,000-100,000 and an 18% severity for loans greater than $100,000.
A New York Fed report tells us that mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, increased by 0.5%. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports stand at $8.17 trillion, up by $39 billion from their level in the third quarter. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) dropped by $2 billion (0.4%) in the third quarter and now stand at $510 billion. Non-housing debt balances increased by 2.6%. What caught the media's attention, however, were the delinquency rates (loans that are 90 days or more past due). Overall they were unchanged at 4.3%. Delinquent mortgage and credit card debt fell, but auto loan delinquencies rose to 3.5% from 3.1%. The biggest trouble spot remained student loans, which saw delinquencies reach an alarming 11.3%, up from 11.1% in the third quarter. By contrast, only 3.1% of mortgage loans were delinquent, though that level is far higher than before the Great Recession, when mortgage delinquencies were consistently around 1% to 1.5%.
Once again the topic of Millennials and their debt is in the news. Student loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy, and as a result linger on borrowers' credit reports longer, creating increasing pools of delinquent debt. But the New York Fed said the survey also reflected "high inflows" of new delinquency. Student debt totals rose $31 billion in the quarter to nearly $1.2 trillion.
Sure enough, Millennials have the lowest net worth of all generations, significantly lagging behind all other age cohorts, with a median net worth of $10,400 compared to the second lowest median net worth of $46,700 for 35-44 years old. Those aged between 65-74 years old had the largest median net worth of $232,100. With low employment opportunities and little room for advancements in income, Millennials' net worth is near historic lows and has not recovered since the recession. Likewise, assets have also decreased at a faster rate, resulting in the overall decline in net worth. Since 2010, the median amount of debt among Millennials has reduced to $31,100 and the number of Millennials with mortgage related debt has also declined, which has been evident during the housing bust. This may be due to limited access to credit and other debt obligations taking the place of mortgage debt. Installment debt is highest among Millennials, partly due to student loans. The median value of student debt for Millennials is $17,200, with the amount of young adults with this type of debt increasing to 41.7%. Car loans are also included in installment debt, as 35.3% of Millennials have monthly car payments, whereas the prevalence of credit card debt has fallen among Millennials. Overall, Millennials' liabilities have declined since the recession, but so has their net worth.
Once again our bond (and stock) markets are being determined by what happens overseas. Remember that the U.S. economy is doing pretty well, and would suggest higher rates are on the way. But yesterday's bond selloff was attributed to market speculation that Greece may request a 6-month extension to its current loan agreement which could ease tensions a bit in the short term. The Empire Manufacturing Index fell in February and came in slightly light - probably due to weather. But the NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 55 in February from 57 in January - mostly due to a fall in the Midwest. By the time the dust settled Tuesday the 10-yr T-note was worse over .75 in price, closing at 2.14%, and Agency MBS prices worsened over .5
This morning we've had the MBA's application numbers (a drop of over 13% with refis down 16% and purchases down 7%). We've also had Housing Starts and Building Permits (-2% and -.7% respectively) along with the Producer Price Index - PPI - (-.8%), and will also see the Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization twins. Later is the U.S. Fed releasing the Minutes from Jan. 27-28 FOMC Meeting. After the early news the yield on the 10-yr, which closed Tuesday at 2.14%, is down to 2.12% and agency MBS prices are better about .125.
Training and Events
Out in Northern California NorthBay CAMP is conducting a Marketing seminar focusing on: Search Engine Optimization, Social Media, working with Millennials, and more! It will be on Thursday, February 19th from 9am to 2:30pm in Santa Rosa. Lunch will be provided, and David Luna is the featured speaker; please click here to register.
"Concerned about Continuing Education NMLS CE Requirements? Knock it out in ALLREGS Q1 and check it off your list. AllRegs offers all of the individual state continuing education courses you need to stay licensed and compliant. Credit banking fees are included with your registration. Registration for one of its 7 or 8-hour Federal SAFE Act CE courses are also available: 7 Hour SAFE Core, 8 Hour SAFE comprehensive. To choose the course that's right for you, check out your state's Successive Years Rule. Click here to see all state-specific CE courses."
Banc of California's Renovation and Construction Department will be hosting a FREE webinar, February 19, 2015 @ 11am PST, on how to market, process and close Renovation Loans. "Don't miss out on this opportunity to learn how to drive more refinance and purchase loans to your platform. Learn renovation facts and marketing techniques to support your immediate sales efforts. Learn how to increase and promote loyalty amongst your referral partners, Apply your Renovation knowledge to your business marketing plan. This webinar is Ideal for both Production and Operation staff. To register, click the link."
Colorado Mortgage Lenders Association's Part Two of TRID Education Series "Navigating the Potholes and Pitfalls" is scheduled for February 18th. To register for this educational event, click here.
And, "Should you proceed with marketing service agreements?" Colorado Mortgage Lenders Association's (CMLA) is hosting a luncheon on March 5, 2015 to provide you with information to make an informed decision. To register, click here.
In addition to the rules you're already navigating - this year brings even more, including theTILA RESPA Integrated Disclosure (TRID) overhaul, and the HMDA rule changes. These pile on even more complexities to an already challenging period of change in regulatory, supervisory, enforcement and litigation matters. Change doesn't have to be difficult when you take the steps to prepare at MBA's Legal Issues and Regulatory Compliance Conference May 3-6 2015, the industry's premier conference addressing legal and regulatory challenges. To get the latest from government and industry experts, register here.
The MBA's National Technology in Mortgage Banking Conference & Expo 2015, March 29-April 1st includes leading mortgage technology personnel connecting with vendors, industry experts and peers to address recently implemented regulations affecting the way your business operates, and discover emerging technologies to develop the solutions you need to thrive in today's ever-changing real estate finance industry. Register today for access to over 20 educational sessions and industry leaders offering proven business practices.
The American Bankers Association is holding its annual Real Estate Lending Conference on April 8-10 in Baltimore, MD. There are dual tracks for CRE and residential lending, with multiple sessions addressing business challenges and building market share and profitability.
Jobs and Announcements
Grand Coast Capital Group, a national private lender based in Boston, MA, is looking to hire a mortgage professional to run its expanding loan origination platform. Since inception in 2013, Grand Coast has doubled in size every year, and is now looking for a talented individual to serve as the VP of Loan Origination & Products, who will manage and grow its current loan product, as well as expand into other loan products to meet the constant demand of Grand Coast's clients. Grand Coast was founded by very successful entrepreneurs and real estate investors who continue to increase their private lending and mortgage footprint, and looking for the right team member to lead the charge. Are you up for the challenge? If so, please contact Jeff Carter.
In the New Jersey area, Oak Mortgage Company has grown to become one of the Top Residential lenders in the Delaware Valley. Oak was recently recognized by National Mortgage Professional Magazine as one of the Top Mortgage Employers in the Northeast. We are proud and honored to receive such recognition by one of the Top Mortgage trade magazines. "Oak prides itself in offering an environment for our employees to learn and grow with the company. We strive to provide a collaborative, creative environment where each person feels encouraged to contribute to our processes, decisions, planning and culture. Oak is always looking to grow our Retail presence by adding experienced Loan Officers and Branch Managers. In addition we are currently seeking to fill the following Operations Positions in our Marlton, New Jersey headquarters: 1) Sr. Mortgage Processor/Underwriter, 2) Opener / Processing Assistant, and 3) Post-Closing Delivery Clerk." For detailed job descriptions and/or a confidential interview please contact Gino Brown, Sr. Vice President.
Join a team of well-established and trusted mortgage experts as CMG Financial's Retail Regional Sales Manager in the Great Lakes Region. "We are looking for a professional experienced in growing a presence in the industry as well as developing a valuable team through strong leadership. CMG is also looking to expand its team of talented and knowledgeable professionals with the following job openings: Wholesale Operations Manager in Rockville, MD, Correspondent Underwriting Manager in San Ramon, CA, and Wholesale Underwriting Manager in San Ramon, CA. Interested in joining a company whose steady growth has elevated it to success? Contact Amy Gallow to learn more about working with CMG."
On the training front, "The deadline for integrated disclosure implementation will be here before you know it. Are you ready for one of the most significant regulatory changes since RESPA 40 years ago? REMN Wholesale is launching a free monthly webinar series on integrated disclosure that kicks off on tomorrow. (In addition to the webinar and as a part of REMN's ongoing commitment to the broker experience, they're offering new incentives on all FHA streamlines - $0 commitment / underwriting fee and .5 percent incentive with 660+ FICO - and staffing up with account executives in regions across the country. Know any account executives dedicated to customer service and looking to join a thriving lender? Have them send their resumes to aerecruiting@remn. com.)