You won't see too many days like today when it comes to mortgage rates and the underlying bond market that drives them. Bonds were eagerly awaiting this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report and an important source of guidance for the Fed rate outlook.  Reminder: while the Fed Funds Rate itself does not control mortgage rates, Fed rate EXPECTATIONS tend to correlate much better.  Fed rate expectations leapt higher this morning after inflation came in hotter than expected. The rest of the interest rate world followed in lock step. When lenders released their initial mortgage rates this morning, the daily average 30yr fixed was up 0.1% from yesterday--a very big move for a single day. But roughly half an hour later, the bond market began gradually moving back in the other direction. The recovery continued at a remarkably steady pace (not the sort of linear pace normally seen on days with sharp reactions to important economic data). The only other thing happening in a similarly linear fashion was the HEAVY selling in stocks.  I'd be the first to point out that it's generally a mistake to assume that a certain development in the stock market reliably predicts an outcome in the bond market. That correlation can be positive or negative depending on the day and the underlying motivations. In today's case, there were solid examples of both positive and negative correlation. Immediately following the inflation data, stocks and bonds lost ground in unison. We'd reconcile that by saying higher Fed rate expectations spell bad news for both. But then the stock selling continued--ultimately progressing toward the worst day of losses in over 2 months. 

October 14, 2026 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 7.45% -0.01%   5.99% 7.61% 15 Yr. Fixed 7.14% +0.00%   5.55% 7.23% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.62% +0.00%   6.1% 7.71% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 14, 2026 Epic Round Trip as Rates Launch Higher Only to End Lower Wed, Oct 14, 2026 3:43PM You won't see too many days like today when it comes to mortgage rates and the underlying bond market that drives them. Bonds were eagerly awaiting this morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key inflation report and an important source of guidance for the Fed rate outlook.  Reminder: while the Fed Funds Rate itself does not control mortgage rates, Fed rate EXPECTATIONS tend to correlate much better.  Fed rate expectations leapt higher this morning after inflation came in hotter than expected. The rest of the interest rate world followed in lock step. When lenders released their i... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.45% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.14% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.13% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.62% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.85% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.15% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/14 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.40% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.13 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/8 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.49% +0.19 0.84 15 Yr. Fixed 6.71% +0.15 1.05 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.39% +0.12 0.52 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/7 UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.53 +0.02   97.78 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 100.89 +0.05   100.34 104.00 10 YR Treasury 5.197 -0.021   3.948 5.318 CPI Puts a Floor Under Recent Rate Rally Wed, Oct 14, 2026 9:48AM Unrounded core CPI came in at 0.335, which nearly rounds to 0.4% versus an expectations of 0.2%.  This is a big surprise when it comes to inflation data, and it matters more at the moment given the rapidly evolving Fed rate hike outlook. Recent Fed speeches caused a significant pull-back in rate hike expectations. Today's inflation data undoes most of t... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 95.94 +0.03 UMBS 6.0 98.54 +0.03 UMBS 6.5 100.91 +0.07 GNMA 5.5 96.34 +0.04 GNMA 6.0 98.85 +0.12 GNMA 6.5 100.82 -0.08 Pricing as of: 10/14 5:34PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.805 -0.005 5 YR Treasury 4.995 -0.004 7 YR Treasury 5.090 -0.020 10 YR Treasury 5.193 -0.025 30 YR Treasury 5.527 -0.033 Pricing as of: 10/14 5:34PM EST Other News Correspondent and Wholesale, CLE, Audit, Free POS Products; News From Chicago; MBA Chair Owen Lee Interview Wed, Oct 14, 2026 11:50AM What percentage of the industry is shifting credit policies? Yesterday the industry learned that Fairway Independent and Movement are “now implementing VantageScore 4.0 (owned by Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion)… The VantageScore 4.0 credit scoring model is offered through Experian, Equifax and TransUnion, as well as mortgage technology providers including... (read more) Latest Video Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.... Fed's Beige Book: Little growth overall in other sectors October consumer sentiment misses estimates Consumer spending in September was the third strongest in over 4 years: Bof... Around the Web Investing Live Fed’s Goolsbee: CPI was discouraging, more bad months would be unacceptable CNBC Fannie Mae sharply raises mortgage rate forecast for 2027 CNBC Here's the inflation breakdown for September 2026 in one chart CNBC Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September, putting annual inflation rate at 3.7% Investing Live Fed's Beige Book: Nine of 12 districts report growth as price pressures broaden CNBC Even more borrowers choose riskier mortgages, as higher interest rates crush affordability CNBC Social Security Administration announces 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 BLS Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 9 metropolitan areas over the year ending August 2026 CNBC The latest inflation data is expected to show price increases are accelerating CNBC Williams says Fed may not have to hike rates in 2027, at odds with traders NAR Existing-Home Sales Increased 1.5% in September CNBC U.S. Treasury yields inch lower as investors await key inflation report Bloomberg Fed’s Williams Interview With Bloomberg News: Full Transcript

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