Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won't get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k--well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month's 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with the stronger levels from yesterday morning. As such, mortgage rates were able to start the day right in line with yesterday's opening levels. The average 30yr fixed rate has been very flat for nearly 2 weeks now. The biggest risk/opportunity for a meaningful change would follow the eventual release of the jobs report, but that date is TBD for now.

October 1, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.36% -0.02%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.87% -0.03%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.28% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 1, 2025 Mortgage Rates Remain Unchanged After Downbeat Employment Report Wed, Oct 1, 2025 3:16PM Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won't get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k--well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month's 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.36% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.87% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.05% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.28% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.83% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.08% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.34% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.55% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/2 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.46% +0.12 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 5.76% +0.06 0.68 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.54% +0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/1 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.38 -0.04   95.05 99.96 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.98 +0.01   97.47 101.28 10 YR Treasury 4.134 +0.007   3.932 4.780 Stronger Start After ADP Comes in Much Weaker Wed, Oct 1, 2025 8:32AM Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the government shutdown now confirmed, this will be the week's only broad payroll data.  It's certainly not worth nearly as much of a reaction as the jobs report, but it's ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.31 +0.02 UMBS 5.0 99.34 -0.08 UMBS 5.5 100.95 -0.02 GNMA 4.5 97.31 0.00 GNMA 5.0 99.64 +0.05 GNMA 5.5 100.77 -0.03 Pricing as of: 10/8 3:23PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.591 +0.023 5 YR Treasury 3.727 +0.024 7 YR Treasury 3.916 +0.018 10 YR Treasury 4.134 +0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.727 +0.003 Pricing as of: 10/8 3:23PM EST Other News MBS, Non-QM, HELOC, Processing Tools; Pennymac's CEO Spector; LO Shutdown Considerations Wed, Oct 1, 2025 11:09AM Come on… you don’t believe politics and mortgages are separate? Look at politicized government housing agencies: whoever is running HUD, whether it is Bill Pulte or Scott Turner, posted this note on the website. Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that all we had in the news were tariffs and Fed Governor Lisa Cook? (By the way, all the living Fed Chairs have come... (read more) Latest Video How the U.S. government shutdown may impact mortgage rates How the U.S. government shutdown impacts economic data Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming a... S&P Global U.S. manufacturing PMI comes in as expected Around the Web CNBC Government shutdown means opportune timing for Neptune Flood IPO CNBC Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout CNBC Mortgage refinance demand plunges 21%, as interest rates hit 3-week high PR Newswire Manufacturing PMI® at 49.1%; September 2025 Eye on Housing Consumer Confidence Drops on Job Concerns Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year Calculated Risk Blog A few Comments on the Seasonal Pattern for House Prices CNBC Consumer confidence is lower than expected as Wall Street braces for shutdown data blackout Bureau of Labor and Statistics August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary Eye on Housing Construction Labor Market Softens CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as U.S. government shuts down Calculated Risk Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index at 49.1% in September

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