Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probability of a corrective bounce increases. This is especially true as the rally covers more ground and more time. With 10yr yields dropping nearly 30bps over 4 consecutive sessions, a corrective bounce was a relevant concern, and it arrived today. That said, it was also fairly mild as far as corrective bounces go. On a separate note, many market watchers are confused as to why bonds would lose ground despite a historically large preliminary NFP benchmark revision (released this morning). But this revision pertains to the March 2024 through March 2025 time frame. Not only is that irrelevant to present day market movement, it also fell within most analyst's range of expectations. Econ Data / Events Annual NFP Revision Estimate (March 2024-March 2025) -911k vs -818k prev Market Movement Recap 10:05 AM No real reaction to NFP revision estimates.  Modest overnight weakness remains.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.063 10:41 AM A bit more weakness in Treasuries with 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.077.  MBS down an eighth. 02:11 PM Recovering slightly after 3yr auction.  10yr up 2.7bps at 4.066 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 04:02 PM Weakest levels.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.081

September 9, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 9, 2025 Mortgage Rates Finally Tick Slightly Higher Tue, Sep 9, 2025 3:19PM It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headline is much scarier than reality. In fact, many borrowers won't see any detectable difference from yesterday's latest levels as the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates moved a mere 0.01% higher. This preserves the entirety of the improvement seen last Friday when rates dropped sharply in response to the downbeat jobs report.  There haven't been major economic reports so far this week (the bonds that underly mortgage rate movement te... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.59 -0.37   95.05 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.03 -0.20   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.050   3.643 4.780 Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades Tue, Sep 9, 2025 4:04PM Post-NFP Rally Momentum Fades When bonds string together several successive days of improvement, the probability of a corrective bounce increases. This is especially true as the rally covers more ground and more time. With 10yr yields dropping nearly 30bps over 4 consecutive sessions, a corrective bounce was a releva... (read more) These Aren't The NFP Revisions You're Looking For Tue, Sep 9, 2025 10:31AM On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This is the report that generated buzz over the "revisions" in general, as those particular revisions created a drastically different picture of the labor market in RECENT months. Speaking of recent, today's NFP re... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.63 -0.41 UMBS 5.0 99.59 -0.37 UMBS 5.5 101.03 -0.20 GNMA 4.5 98.02 -0.14 GNMA 5.0 99.82 -0.38 GNMA 5.5 100.89 -0.32 Pricing as of: 9/17 8:28PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.564 +0.060 5 YR Treasury 3.656 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 3.839 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.050 30 YR Treasury 4.688 +0.036 Pricing as of: 9/17 8:28PM EST Other News HELOC, DPA, Non-QM, Merge Assistance Tools; Pennymac/Vesta Deal; LOs and Consistency; Fannie Issuance Dropping Tue, Sep 9, 2025 11:42AM Tomorrow I head from Boise to Jackson for the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference. Certainly a topic in my email in-box and at events is how Freddie and Fannie’s market share is ebbing, and at noon PT, 3PM ET, Capital Markets Wrap (presented by Polly) will explore if F&F are fading from prominence amid the rise of alternative products, whether ... (read more) Latest Video Payroll revisions in focus: Here's what to know Bond yields fall ahead of key economic reports Former Cleveland Fed President Mester: I would move ahead with a 25 bps cut... NY Fed Survey finds the outlook for job seekers hit record low Around the Web CNBC Job growth revised down by 911,000 through March, signaling economy on shakier footing than realized CNBC Important inflation reports this week expected to show prices still on the rise CNBC Traders see a chance the Fed cuts by a half point Bureau of Labor and Statistics Current Employment Statistics Preliminary Benchmark (National) Summary Eye on Housing Share of New Homes with Patios Edges Down for First Time in Fifteen Years CNBC AI tech talent is juicing these real estate markets Politico Scott Bessent Threatens an Administration Rival Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview Eye on Housing Purchase Activity Slips Despite Lower Mortgage Rates Eye on Housing Who Are NAHB Remodelers? Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in August Calculated Risk Blog September ICE Mortgage Monitor: House Prices Up Slightly Year-over-year CNBC Worker confidence in finding a new job hits record low in New York Fed survey

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