Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP? One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the payroll count can go BIG in either direction, regardless of what the other data or labor market trends have been suggesting. Today's data suggested a predictable level of labor market weakness. This isn't something that would guarantee a bond rally, but that's nonetheless what happened.  Rather than think of this as a "lead-off" or bonds getting in position for a weaker NFP, it's more accurate to treat such moves as a simple circling of the wagons as traders exit previously held positions to get neutral ahead of a high risk event.  The movement in the yield curve is a solid clue here as it had steepened to what are essentially the highest levels since early 2022 by Wednesday morning and has been correcting ever since (correcting = 10s and 30s doing better than 2s and 3s). All of this is much ado about nothing.  The point is as boring as it is true: bonds can rally or sell on Friday at a pace that's only really limited by the size of the beat/miss in the data. Econ Data / Events ADP Jobs 54k vs 65k f'cast, 104k prev Jobless Claims 237k vs 230k f'cast, 229k prev Continued Claims 1940k vs 1960k f'cast, 1944k prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Aug) 52.0 vs 51 f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Aug) 52.0 vs 51 f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM Services Employment (Aug) 46.5 vs -- f'cast, 46.4 prev ISM Services Employment (Aug) 46.5 vs -- f'cast, 46.4 prev ISM Services New Orders (Aug) 56.0 vs -- f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM Services New Orders (Aug) 56.0 vs -- f'cast, 50.3 prev ISM Services Prices (Aug) 69.2 vs -- f'cast, 69.9 prev ISM Services Prices (Aug) 69.2 vs -- f'cast, 69.9 prev Market Movement Recap 08:15 AM Limited reaction to ADP data, but no bad reaction.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.183 10:02 AM Off best levels after ISM data.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.193 11:50 AM Sideways drift continues.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.19 03:04 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.171

September 4, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 4, 2025 Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low Ahead of a Potentially Volatile Friday Thu, Sep 4, 2025 3:22PM The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 30yr fixed rate down from 6.75 to 6.50 because it came out much weaker than expected (in addition to revising the previous two months lower as well). The shift in the labor market outlook led the market to firmly price-in a Fed rate cut at the next Fed meeting in 2 weeks. Other economic reports since then have been a bit less dire, but still suggested enough economic uncertainty for rates to stay at recent lows.  Today's data was the latest... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.67 +0.09   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.10   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.075 -0.006   3.643 4.780 Bonds Positioning For Weaker Jobs Report? Thu, Sep 4, 2025 3:54PM Bonds Positioning For Weaker NFP? One of the best things to understand about the jobs report is that the payroll count can go BIG in either direction, regardless of what the other data or labor market trends have been suggesting. Today's data suggested a predictable level of labor market weakness. This isn't somethin... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.69 +0.06 UMBS 5.0 99.68 +0.09 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.10 GNMA 4.5 98.08 +0.06 GNMA 5.0 99.98 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 101.00 +0.12 Pricing as of: 9/17 10:11PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.541 -0.023 5 YR Treasury 3.639 -0.017 7 YR Treasury 3.824 -0.015 10 YR Treasury 4.074 -0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.673 -0.015 Pricing as of: 9/17 10:11PM EST Other News Corresp. and Wholesale, Credit, AI Asst., Warehouse Products; Events and Training Thu, Sep 4, 2025 11:46AM “Apparently you can’t use ‘beef stew’ as a password. It’s not stroganoff.” How’s your privacy? Or another question: Why wouldn’t you tell your recent borrower to freeze their credit after the loan was done? TransUnion has filed data breach disclosures. According to the filings, this data breach, affecting millions of TransUnion customers through SalesForce, ... (read more) Latest Video Jobless claims rise more than expected Services PMI surprises to downside Fed Governor Waller: Fed should start cutting at September meeting ISM non-manufacturing PMI comes in 52.0 vs. 50.8 estimated Around the Web Marketwatch Jobless claims rise to highest level since June adding to concern over labor market CNBC The August jobs report could confirm a slowing labor market. But will stocks care? Eye on Housing HVAC in New Construction in 2024 Market Watch ADP says just 54,000 private jobs created in August. Businesses still hesitant to hire. Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit Increased to $78.3 Billion in July Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Fed's Beige Book: "Little or no change in economic activity" S&P Global US service sector growth remains positive in August CNBC Student loan borrowers pausing payments have doubled since 2024, expert calculates Calculated Risk Blog Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO CNBC 30-year Treasury yield holds steady as investors await further jobs data Eye on Housing Open Construction Jobs Rise in July Calculated Risk Blog Light Vehicles Sales Decreased to 16.07 million SAAR in August

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