Calm Day to End A Calm Week While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market, it was nonetheless just as calm as any other day this week in terms of volatility. That's a bit more impressive considering it was the only day with big-ticket econ data. Overall, the week was marked by slow, steady gains for no particular reason. With that, the entirety of August, post-jobs-report did exactly what it was supposed to do. Specifically, it held a narrow enough range to avoid challenging the range set by the last jobs report day. The upcoming week--while shorter than normal due to the Labor Day holiday--is infinitely more capable of producing bond market volatility. Even the supporting actors are arguably heavy hitters in terms of econ data. Friday's jobs report speaks for itself. Bottom line: additional labor market weakness could easily help bonds break new ground at lower yields while unexpected resilience could firmly reinforce recent floors. Econ Data / Events Core PCE (m/m) (Jul) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev Core PCE Inflation (y/y) (Jul) 2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.8% prev Inflation-Adjusted Spending (Consumption) (Jul) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.3% prev Personal Income (Jul) 0.4% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.3% prev Wholesale inventories mm (Jul) 0.2% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.1% prev Chicago PMI (Aug) 41.5 vs 46 f'cast, 47.1 prev Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 58.2 vs 58.6 f'cast, 61.7 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Aug) 4.8% vs 4.9% f'cast, 4.5% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Aug) 3.5% vs 3.9% f'cast, 3.4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Minimal movement after PCE data.  MBS are down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields are up 1.4bps at 4.22. 01:03 PM Slightly stronger heading into PM.  MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.224

August 29, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 29, 2025 Rates End Week at Best Levels; Next Week Could be Huge Fri, Aug 29, 2025 2:30PM It was a very slow and steady week for mortgage rates. On all 5 days, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate moved by 0.02% or less.  This is a small enough change that the average borrower wouldn't see any detectable difference in a loan quote from one day to the next. But due to most of the changes being toward lower rates, Thursday and Friday would be modestly but measurably better than the first 3 days of the week. This is an ideal scenario for prospective borrower and mortgage professionals. One of the most frustrating and challenging realities of this industry is the extent to which ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Calm Day to End A Calm Week Fri, Aug 29, 2025 4:21PM Calm Day to End A Calm Week While Friday itself may not have resulted in a rally for the broader bond market, it was nonetheless just as calm as any other day this week in terms of volatility. That's a bit more impressive considering it was the only day with big-ticket econ data. Overall, the week was marked by slow,... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 11:04AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 11:04AM EST Other News Loan Calculator and Verification Tools; Event Calendar; Insurance Costs; Mortgage Banking Bound Interview Fri, Aug 29, 2025 10:17AM “The hardness of the butter is proportional to the softness of the bread.” Proportionality is important, whether in a restaurant or in a lender watching adjustable-rate loans (where the market favors credit unions and banks). With short-term rates dropping relative to long-term rates, the adjustable-rate mortgage market share has increased. Lenders that I ha... (read more) Latest Video Yield curve steepens after economic data Consumer sentiment revised to 58.2 vs. 58.6 estimated July pending home sales -0.4% monthly vs. +0.3% estimated The E.U. is set to remove tariffs on U.S. industrial goods Around the Web CNBC Condo prices are fallingbut a bargain isnt guaranteed: Its all in the math CNBC Core inflation rate rose to 2.9% in July, as expected, key Fed measure shows Marketwatch What economists are watching for in tomorrow's PCE inflation and spending data CNBC Pending home sales tick lower in July as canceled contracts spike Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Declined to 4.0% YoY in July Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.1% Year-over-year CNBC Fed's Waller, a candidate for chair, sees potential for half-point cut if labor market weakens further Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 9.8% below 2022 peak Market Watch U.S. trade deficit in goods widened sharply in July as firms raced to avoid tariffs Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income Increased 0.4% in July; Spending Increased 0.5% Eye on Housing Multifamily Absorption Rises in the Second Quarter CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors await key inflation measure

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