Incidental Weakness or a New Trend? The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involved trading levels breaking to just slightly worse levels than last week.  Looking back to the beginning of the month, this is starting to look like a trend toward progressively weaker levels. But is it? From a purely technical standpoint, that case could be made, but considering volume, the time of year, and the econ calendar, it's just as easily chalked up to incidental movement in a narrow range.  In fact, all of August's trading continues taking place well inside the range set by the post-jobs report rally.   Econ Data / Events Export prices mm (Jul) 0.1% vs 0.1% f'cast, prev 0.5% Import prices mm (Jul) 0.4% vs 0.0% f'cast, prev -0.1% NY Fed Manufacturing (Aug) 11.90 vs 0.0 f'cast, prev 5.50 Retail Sales (Jul) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, prev 0.6% Retail Sales (ex-autos) (Jul) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, prev 0.8% Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jul) 0.5% vs 0.4% f'cast, prev 0.8% Market Movement Recap 09:25 AM Moderately stronger overnight, but selling off since 8:20am CME open.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down less than half a bp at 4.313 10:57 AM Weakest levels.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.337 02:57 PM Sideways just off weakest levels.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.34

August 18, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 18, 2025 Rates Trickle to Another Higher Low Mon, Aug 18, 2025 3:39PM Mortgage rates are as high as they've been on almost any other day this month.  You'd have to go back to August 1st to see anything higher.  On the other hand, rates are still noticeably lower than almost any other day of the past 10 months.  It's really only the past 2 weeks that have been any better and the gap between recent highs and lows is very small. In other words, rates have been holding a narrow range near 10 month lows in August.  There's been a modicum of upward drift over the past few days, but no material developments.  This week will be fairly light in... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Incidental Weakness or a New Trend? Mon, Aug 18, 2025 3:56PM Incidental Weakness or a New Trend? The most interesting thing that happened in the bond market today involved trading levels breaking to just slightly worse levels than last week.  Looking back to the beginning of the month, this is starting to look like a trend toward progressively weaker levels. But is it? Fr... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 7:14AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 7:14AM EST Other News PPE, Credit, Compliance, QC Tools; Events, Webinars, and Training; ARMs Rising in Popularity? Mon, Aug 18, 2025 10:37AM As I type this, I’m at the doctor’s office, and some guy a few seats over is booing all the names being called that aren’t his. Do you boo the products that you don’t have? Non-Agency lending, much of it in the form of non-QM loans, has been moving steadily higher at the expense of Freddie Mac’s and Fannie Mae’s market share. Are rates helping? I went back a... (read more) Latest Video Tariff impact on auto prices: Here's what to know Wedbush's Jay McCanless: Berkshire's bullishness on DR Horton and Lennar sh... Consumer sentiment comes in at 58.6 vs. 62.5 estimated Industrial production -0.1% vs. expectations it would remain unchanged Around the Web Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Plateaus at Relatively Low Level CNBC Treasury yields dip as traders gear up for Fed minutes CNBC How retail accounting could distort profitability as tariffs take effect Calculated Risk Blog Housing August 18th Weekly Update: Inventory Up 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 9.9% from 2019 Levels Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in July Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July CNBC Fed's Goolsbee sees 'note of unease' as central bank looks to next interest rate move Eye on Housing Credit Conditions for Builders Tighten FXStreet Michigan Consumer Sentiment Drops To 58.6; SP500 Tests Session Lows Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.5% in July Eye on Housing June Single-Family Permits Slumps, Multifamily Gains CNBC European markets set to open higher ahead of Trump-Ukraine crunch talks

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