Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 forecast, but it's also the highest reading since post-covid hyper-inflation by a wide margin.  And while there's always a chance it will be revised to something less alarming next month, it was enough to do noticeable damage to bonds today.  Before the data, 10yr yields were knocking on the yield floor at 4.20%.  This afternoon, they're up closer to 4.30%.  Things could have been even worse if not for the fact that the PCE components in the PPI data suggested a much less onerous impact on the PCE data that will come out in 2 weeks. Nonetheless, it will be enough to keep eyebrows raised regarding the extent to which tariffs are hindering a return to the 2% inflation target (something that will unfortunately be up in the air for many months).  Econ Data / Events Core PPI 0.9 vs 0.2 f'cast, 0.0 prev Annual Core PPI 3.7 vs 2.9 f'cast, 2.6 prev Jobless Claims 224k vs 228k f'cast, 227k prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM stronger overnight but losing ground after PPI.  MBS unchanged and 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.237 11:14 AM Additional weakness now.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.278 11:45 AM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 5bps at 4.291 01:38 PM Off the weakest levels.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.289

August 14, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 14, 2025 Mortgage Rates Mostly Steady Despite Some Market Volatility Thu, Aug 14, 2025 1:08PM Mortgage rates hit fresh long term lows yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at the best levels since October 3rd, 2024.  There wasn't anything exceptional about the movement yesterday or on any other day in the past week.  Rather, it was the jobs report at the beginning of the month that accounted for a 2-day rally.  Rates have been holding near longer-term lows with little fanfare ever since. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, the absence of fanfare reflects an absence of volatility in the underlying bond market. Today presented the biggest threat to th... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility Thu, Aug 14, 2025 2:27PM Bonds Hold The Range Despite More Data-Driven Volatility At 0.9, not only did today's PPI crush the 0.2 forecast, but it's also the highest reading since post-covid hyper-inflation by a wide margin.  And while there's always a chance it will be revised to something less alarming next month, it was enough to... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 3:47AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 3:47AM EST Other News Loan Trading, Fee Cure, VA IRRRL, UAD 3.6 Tools; Ginnie (FHA & VA) Issuance Rising Thu, Aug 14, 2025 11:42AM “I somehow managed to make it through high school math while only being able to remember even numbers. What are the odds?!” As the California MBA’s Western Secondary breaks up here in Southern California, numbers are dancing in everyone’s head. Volumes, margins, gain on sale, concessions, and extensions. (I even have a numerical riddle that stumped me below ... (read more) Latest Video Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected Former Cleveland Fed Pres. Mester: The next Fed chair should be someone 'wh... Refinance applications rise to strongest level since April President Trump expands search for next Federal Reserve chair Around the Web CNBC Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected The Basis Point Bessent on 0.5% Sept Fed cut, 11 Powell replacement candidates FXStreet US: Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 224K last week Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 Eye on Housing Building Material Prices Rise in July Marketwatch Why both bulls and bears may want to be making the same bond-market trade Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decreased Slightly in Q2 2025 CNBC Weekly mortgage refinancing demand shoots 23% higher, with riskier loans making a comeback Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in July Eye on Housing U.S. Economy Rebounded in Second Quarter CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors await further inflation data CNBC Older student loan borrowers face high delinquency rates as Trump administration ramps up collections CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors digest latest inflation data

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