Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on the outcome of the 8:30am economic data, you'd be very well justified in assuming some selling/weakness.  While that may have been the case for a few moments, it was quickly replaced by bond buying as traders parsed the Retail Sales internals, revisions, and especially the inflation-adjusted spending implications. In a nutshell, the report showed an ongoing downtrend in discretionary consumer spending and that ended up being the trade of the day--even if it wasn't a super huge trade. This was enough to keep bonds in positive territory for most of the day, despite an afternoon correction back to unchanged levels.  Econ Data / Events Retail Sales 0.6  vs 0.1 f'cast, -0.9 prev Core Retail Sales 0.5 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev last month revised from 0.4 Import prices  0.1 vs 0.3 last month revised to -0.4 from 0.0 Jobless Claims 221k vs 235k f'cast, 228k prev Continued Claims 1956k vs 1970k f'cast, 1954k prev Philly Fed  15.9 vs -1 f'cast, -4.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:39 AM 10yr yields are up 1bp at 4.468. MBS are down 2 ticks (.06) 09:34 AM In positive territory now with MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.44 02:11 PM MBS back to unchanged on the day and down an eighth from highs.  10yr up half a bp at 4.463

July 17, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 17, 2025 Mortgage Rates Staying Broadly Sideways Thu, Jul 17, 2025 2:51PM Despite all of the economic data and news headlines over the past few days, mortgage rates have barely budged since last Friday. That was not what we expected this week given the anticipation for the inflation reports that came out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Now today, a seemingly balmy Retail Sales report (something that would normally push rates higher) ended up being no big deal for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates.  There's some rational justification for the paradox, however. After adjusting for inflation, the retail sales categories that speak to discretionary spending ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data Thu, Jul 17, 2025 3:55PM Bonds Unfazed by Econ Data If you had to guess at the bond market's response this morning based solely on the outcome of the 8:30am economic data, you'd be very well justified in assuming some selling/weakness.  While that may have been the case for a few moments, it was quickly replaced by bond buying as trader... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:25AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:25AM EST Other News HMDA Review, Corresp., Data Mining, Processing Tools; Agency Credit Scoring Thu, Jul 17, 2025 11:52AM “I forgot to put the seat belt on my five-year-old boy this morning and as we were leaving the trailer park, somebody shouted, ‘You're an irresponsible father!’ I yelled, “Who the hell said that?! Stop the car, son!’” Lenders know that not all manufactured homes are trailers, and in fact there are some great MHs out there. In a few weeks I head to Michigan f... (read more) Latest Video The Investment Committee weigh in on the market reaction to Trump possibly ... Former Fed Governor Randall Kroszner: The Fed likely won’t cut rates at Jul... Business inventories unchanged for second consecutive month Wholesale inflation measure was unchanged in June Around the Web CNBC The lock-in effect is making it harder to buy a homeeven if mortgage rates fall Marketwatch Jobless claims drop for fifth straight week to lowest level since April Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 3.2% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog LA Ports: Traffic Down 3% YoY in June Yahoo Retail sales rise more than expected in June Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in June Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Edges Up in July MSN Import prices rise 0.1%, export prices rise 0.5% in June Eye on Housing Permits Falls in May 2025 CNBC Wholesale inflation measure was unchanged in June Calculated Risk Blog Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly" CNBC European stocks set to open higher as markets weigh tariffs and Trump comments Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Increased 0.3% in June

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