Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k.  The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact that's not too surprising given the preponderance of other data that suggests a weaker labor market in June. The latest in that list was today's ADP employment report which completely whiffed (-35k vs 95k f'cast). Bonds initially rallied on that news, but didn't maintain the gains, possibly due to all of the preemptive rallying already in place over the past 2 weeks, and possibly because ADP is notorious for paradoxically diverging from NFP on any given month despite broad long-term correlation. Today's weakness was minimal in the bigger picture and could just as easily be viewed as part of a 2-day process of circling the wagons (pausing and modestly correcting a prevailing trend on the eve of high-consequence data). Econ Data / Events ADP Employment -33k vs 95k f'cast, 29k prev Market Movement Recap 08:27 AM slightly weaker overnight  but erasing losses after ADP data--at least in the shorter end of the yield curve.  MBS now unchanged.  10yr up 4bps at 4.279, but 2yr is down 1.7bps. 09:15 AM Back down to weaker levels.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.292 12:46 PM Holding at 5 ticks (.16) weaker in MBS.  10yr now up 6.4bps at 4.303 03:10 PM Off the weakest levels in Treasuries with 10yr now up only 4.8bps at 4.288.  MBS down an eighth.

July 2, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 2, 2025 Rates Finally Rise Ahead of Jobs Report Wed, Jul 2, 2025 2:53PM Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks.  That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. While that's a moderately big jump for a single day, if we remove the past 4 days from the equation, today's rates would still be the lowest since early April.  In other words, we're still in solid shape in the bigger picture. Additionally, we've increasingly expected rates to bounce as the recent winning streak persisted. As of yesterday, it wa... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP Wed, Jul 2, 2025 3:43PM Bonds Circle The Wagons Ahead of High Risk NFP The consensus for tomorrow's NFP (nonfarm payrolls, the principal component of the big jobs report) is 110k--not much of a downgrade from last month's 139k.  The bond market has recently been trading as if it expects to see an even lower number--a fact that's not to... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 12:31PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 12:31PM EST Other News Processing, Lead-Gen Tools; HELOCs, 2nds, Non-Agency Products; Maryland's DSCR Controversy Wed, Jul 2, 2025 11:51AM “Pro Tip: Here’s a friendly 4th of July reminder that absolutely no one is going to watch the videos of the fireworks you record on your phone.” You can bet anyone flying some place is watching the flight delays due to staffing and weather. You can bet that people are watching home price appreciation, especially in terms of home equity, HELOCs, and cash-out ... (read more) Latest Video The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for... Final vote on President Trump's 'big beautiful bill' expected today Bessent: January Fed board appointee could eventually become chair ISM manufacturing PMI surprises to upside Around the Web CNBC Student loan borrowers will have fewer repayment options under GOP megabill CNBC Homeowners insurance premiums vary widely from state to state. But they are all going up CNBC The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says CNBC Mortgage refinance demand surges, as interest rates drop further Marketwatch Senate passes Trump's big bill. Here's where things stand on Medicaid and taxes as it goes to the House Marketwatch June jobs report could decide the next Fed interest-rate cut. Here's why. Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Heavy Truck Sales Decreased in June Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in May; Fannie Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Near Highest Since Jan 2011 (ex-Pandemic) CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors weigh Trump's 'big beautiful bill' PR Newswire Manufacturing PMI at 49% Eye on Housing Flat Job Openings for Construction CNBC UK government borrowing costs spike amid divisions in ruling Labour party

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