It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?"  The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years.  These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial markets on those days. Since it was already a foregone conclusion that the Fed would not be cutting rates today, the market was forced to take its Fed-related cues from the dots and from Fed Chair Powell's press conference. The latter was just slightly negative for rates (i.e. it implied some upward pressure), but the dots did no harm.  After the dust settled, the underlying bond market was flat to slightly stronger on the day due to improvement that was in place several hours before the Fed announcement.  Markets are closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday, but will reopen on Friday.

June 18, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.14% +0.03%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% +0.01%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% +0.00%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jun 18, 2025 Remarkable Absence of Mortgage Rate Volatility Wed, Jun 18, 2025 4:17PM It happens, but it's rare. A Fed "dot plot" day has come and gone with mortgage rates almost perfectly unchanged from the previous day. This speaks to the level of indecision not only in the market, but also among Fed members. First off, what's a "dot plot day?"  The dot plot (or simply, "the dots") refers to a chart/table in the Fed's economic projections that shows where each Fed member sees the Fed Funds Rate at the end of the next few years.  These projections only come out on 4 of the 8 Fed days per year and they've grown to be a leading source of volatility for financial mark... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.14% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.70% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.30% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.50% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.72% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/11 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.96 -0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.36 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.175 +0.031   3.932 4.608 Once Again: Today is Not About a Fed Rate Cut Wed, Jun 18, 2025 10:47AM Fed day is here and there's a 0% chance of a rate cut.  That's been the case for just over a month due a combination of April's jobs report and the stock market recovery in May (or the underlying events that helped facilitate it). In order to cut, the Fed would need to see the sort of deterioration in the labor market it saw in 2024 as well as the sort ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.13 -0.01 UMBS 5.0 99.97 +0.00 UMBS 5.5 101.36 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 98.00 -0.17 GNMA 5.0 100.19 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/11 3:21PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.510 +0.054 5 YR Treasury 3.739 +0.038 7 YR Treasury 3.947 +0.031 10 YR Treasury 4.170 +0.026 30 YR Treasury 4.808 +0.008 Pricing as of: 2/11 3:21PM EST Other News HELOC, Marketing, Down Payment Products; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Compliance Based on Customer Expectations Wed, Jun 18, 2025 11:53AM Today we hear from the U.S. Federal Reserve. We can expect no change to overnight fed funds. As pointed yesterday by Dr. Paul Brewbaker, the economist who spoke here at the MBA Hawai’i conference, the Fed can only shoot at one target at a time: inflation or employment. They have to pick one and have picked inflation. So far so good. Besides that, he tore int... (read more) Latest Video Powell: Best way to help housing is restoring price stability and supportin... Single-family housing construction starts slump as homebuyers pullback Housing starts hit five-year low; jobless claims down Homebuilder confidence will rebound if tariffs ease, says Powers Advisory's... Around the Web CNBC Fed leaves rates unchanged, as expected CNBC Fed sees its preferred inflation gauge topping 3% this year, higher than previous forecast CNBC Mortgage demand drops, even as rates fall to the lowest since April Eye on Housing Sharp Drop in Multifamily Production Brings Overall Housing Starts Down Forex Live US May housing starts 1.256m vs 1.357m expected CNBC The Fed is likely to keep rates the same, but give a forecast that moves markets. What to expect Market Watch Jobless claims move lower, easing some concerns about labor market health CNBC Homebuilder sentiment nears pandemic low as economic uncertainty plagues consumers Calculated Risk Blog Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts CNBC U.S. oil prices hold near five-month high as Trump weighs Iran attack CNBC Treasury yields little changed as investors anticipate Fed's rate decision CNBC These are the sticking points holding up a U.S.-EU trade deal Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.2% in May

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