Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. Today's average rate fell 0.03 after moving up 0.06 since June 12th. This morning's most relevant potential influence--the Retail Sales report--turned out to have a limited impact this morning.  To be fair, when rates are as stable as they have been, there's no need to overanalyze their underlying motivations.  For those determined to do it anyway, today's best example may have been general market anxiety surrounding war in the Middle East. We have yet to see any huge market reaction in response to any of the geopolitical headlines, but there was a reaction that played out over the course of several hours that helped the bond market gain some ground. When bonds improve, mortgage lenders are able to offer lower rates.  Tomorrow's Fed announcement adds to the potential volatility in a more serious way.  This has nothing to do with "cut vs no cut" (there is zero chance of a rate cut tomorrow) and everything to do with the other information the Fed presents on announcement days. Of this info, it is the dot plot (a chart in the Fed's economic projection materials that show each Fed members' rate outlook over the next few years) that carries the most weight.  Caveat: POTENTIAL volatility is just that.  Sometimes Fed announcement days end up leaving rates fairly unchanged.  There's no way to now which way things will move ahead of time, only that the risk is higher than normal.

June 17, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jun 17, 2025 Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower Ahead of Fed Day Tue, Jun 17, 2025 3:19PM Mortgage rates continue operating in a narrow range with almost every day of the past two months falling between 6.8 and 7.0% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. Today's average rate fell 0.03 after moving up 0.06 since June 12th. This morning's most relevant potential influence--the Retail Sales report--turned out to have a limited impact this morning.  To be fair, when rates are as stable as they have been, there's no need to overanalyze their underlying motivations.  For those determined to do it anyway, today's best example may have been general market anxiety surrounding war in... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Econ Data Not Weak Enough to Help Tue, Jun 17, 2025 10:53AM Bonds were decently stronger in the overnight session, but not for any new, specific reasons.  Trading levels have been cutting an increasingly narrow, sideways range.  Until that changes, a moderate rally following 2 days of weakness is the least surprising outcome. But that was before the AM data, which featured Retail Sales at -0.9 vs =0.8 f'cas... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/6 10:16PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/6 10:16PM EST Other News Marketing, Broker, Processing, MSR Trading Platform; LOs and MISMO; Webinars and Training Tue, Jun 17, 2025 11:46AM In Spain, Spaniards are shooting water pistols at foreigners to protest the impact of mass tourism: it has created a housing crunch. Tourism in the United States is down considerably, especially from Canada, impacting the economy here on Oahu and in other locations. But in the U.S. the inventory of properties for sale is increasing, and the market has turned... (read more) Latest Video CNBC Fed Survey: Respondents continue to forecast weaker growth and higher ... Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, worse than expected as consumers pulled back Homebuilder sentiment nears pandemic low as economic uncertainty plagues co... Homebuilder confidence will rebound if tariffs ease, says Powers Advisory's... Around the Web CNBC The Fed is likely to keep rates the same, but give a forecast that moves markets. What to expect CNBC Homebuilder sentiment nears pandemic low as economic uncertainty plagues consumers CNBC Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady this week. Here's what that means for your money Calculated Risk Blog Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts CNBC Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, worse than expected as consumers pulled back Marketwatch Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May CNBC U.S. Treasury yields fall as investors weigh state of Israel-Iran tensions Calculated Risk Blog Housing June 16th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 33.1% Year-over-year Forex Live June US Empire Fed manufacturing survey -16.0 vs -5.5 expected Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.2% in May Eye on Housing Permit Activity Weakens in April 2025 CNBC U.S. Treasury yields nudge higher as Israel-Iran conflict puts markets on edge

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