Token Weakness Without a Cause Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no reason that can be easily proven.  That's been the case on each of the past two sessions  with 30yr yields moving almost 10bps higher between the two of them.  Geopolitical motivations have been nonexistent despite some efforts to link oil price concerns to bond weakness (not a solid thesis right now). Fiscal concerns may be having some small effect behind the scenes, but they're hard to substantiate based on the available headlines. The easiest approach would be to continue to classify the market as rangebound, in which case a pull-back makes sense given the lower yields seen last Thursday--especially with bigger ticket data/events over the next two days. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing -16.0 vs -5.5 f'cast, -9.20 prev Market Movement Recap 09:48 AM Choppy and slightly weaker overnight, but sideways and holding ground since then.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.426 01:47 PM After a decent rally into 10:30am, MBS are down an eighth from highs and 3 ticks (.09) on the day.  10yr up 4.6bps at 4.446 03:50 PM Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr yields up 5.3bps at 4.454

June 16, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jun 16, 2025 Mortgage Rates Drift Slightly Higher to Start The Week Mon, Jun 16, 2025 3:53PM While there's been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn't been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates) have moved nonetheless.   Perhaps it was the lower rates achieved last Thursday that prompted a pullback, or perhaps traders are pricing in some caution ahead of this week's data and Fed announcement. Either way, bonds lost ground on Friday and again today--both times with little by way of overt justification. Fortunately, the losses have been modest.  They leave the average rate very mu... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Token Weakness Without a Cause Mon, Jun 16, 2025 4:15PM Token Weakness Without a Cause Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no reason that can be easily proven.  That's been the case on each of the past two sessions  with 30yr yields moving almost 10bps higher between the two of them.  Geopolitical motivations have been ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 4:39AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 4:39AM EST Other News Cook County DPA, Processing Automation, LO Pricing Tools; Mortgage Cost Map; Conv. Conf. News Mon, Jun 16, 2025 11:43AM Any food science major will tell you that the difference between jelly and jam is that jam has chunks of fruit in it; jelly is strained. There is also a difference in costs in our biz. Here in Honolulu at the MBAH conference, costs are part of the discussion, and sure enough, there is a map of the mortgage closing costs by state. There is also a difference i... (read more) Latest Video Uncertainty is pushing a Fed rate cut out, says Fmr. Fed Vice Chair Lael Br... Former Dallas Fed President Kaplan: Probability of a recession is going dow... Energy prices surge on Middle East risks Consumer spending slows in May: CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Around the Web CNBC Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady this week. Here's what that means for your money Marketwatch Why markets are ignoring scary headlines about Iran, trade wars and U.S. debt Forex Live June US Empire Fed manufacturing survey -16.0 vs -5.5 expected Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May Calculated Risk Blog Housing June 16th Weekly Update: Inventory up 2.1% Week-over-week, Up 33.1% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Real Estate Agent Booms and Busts Eye on Housing Permit Activity Weakens in April 2025 Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in May CNBC U.S. Treasury yields nudge higher as Israel-Iran conflict puts markets on edge 2 the Point Could a Single Credit Report Model Work for the Mortgage Industry? CNBC Consumer sentiment reading rebounds to much higher level than expected as people get over tariff shock Eye on Housing Household Real Estate Asset Value Falls to Start the Year Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking

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