Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapegoat department. In other words, there were not big, obvious justifications for the spike in bond yields. Today's rally had a suggestion: perhaps the market was nervous about a potential update to the inflation framework in today's Powell speech.  After all, it was the previous inflation framework update in 2020 (which basically concluded that rates could stay "lower for longer," even if inflation was elevated) that was responsible for a lot of drama over the past 3 years. Although the 8:30am economic data helped a bit, most of today's gains followed the 8:40am Powell speech.  The absence of stock losses makes the Powell explanation all the more plausible (i.e. if bonds were rallying on weak data, we'd expect to see stocks lose some ground, and they didn't). Econ Data / Events Retail Sales 0.1 vs 0.0 f'cast Retail Sales Control Group -0.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.5 prev Core PPI Monthly -0.4 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core PPI Annual 3.1 vs 3.1 f'cast, 4.0 prev big revision from 3.3 last month Jobless Claims 229k vs 229k Philly Fed  -4 vs -11 f'cast, -26.4 prev Market Movement Recap 09:28 AM Modestly stronger overnight and catching a "no whammies" bid early.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yield down 6 bps at 4.475 12:10 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up nearly half a point and 10yr down 8.5bps at 4.45 02:59 PM Still near best levels.  MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 8bps at 4.456

May 15, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 15, 2025 Mortgage Rates Catch a Break Thu, May 15, 2025 3:36PM Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move higher in the month of May. The latest bump--seen yesterday--took the average top tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.99%. While this is fairly uneventful in the bigger picture, it was a noticeable increase from the 6.81 seen at the end of April, or the slightly lower range  before that. Today's improvement was modest, but at least it was an improvement.  And at least it prevents us from needing to write headlines about an official break above the 7.0% level.  As for motivations, the bond market (which dictates rates) improved after a sle... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses Thu, May 15, 2025 4:25PM Today's Gains Help Us Understand Yesterday's Losses Wednesday's weakness was severely lacking in the scapegoat department. In other words, there were not big, obvious justifications for the spike in bond yields. Today's rally had a suggestion: perhaps the market was nervous about a potential update to the inflation f... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:18AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:18AM EST Other News Workflow, 2nd, Portfolio, Bridge, LOS Products; Pulte Interview; Rocket and Prepayment Speeds Thu, May 15, 2025 11:50AM “There’s a splendid saying about the definition of an economist being someone who “will know tomorrow why the things they predicted yesterday didn't happen today.” Everyone’s warning everyone about everything these days: Recessions, inflation, housing price collapses, the loss of democracy, Congress becoming unnecessary. The bigger the prediction, the bigger... (read more) Latest Video Home affordability plummets: Here's what's needed to balance the market Wholesale prices unexpectedly fell in April amid slide in services Homebuyer mortgage demand recovers after tough April Too early to tell if trade news has impacted Fed trajectory, says former Fe... Around the Web CNBC Here's exactly how unaffordable today's housing market is and where it's getting worse Fitch Ratings US Effective Tariff Rate Declines to 13% from 23% with Lower China Duty Eye on Housing Soft Spring Selling Season Takes a Toll on Builder Confidence Yahoo Retail sales slow sharply in April as pre-tariff spending burst reverses Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 229,000 FXStreet US annual PPI inflation softens to 2.4% in April vs. 2.5% expected CNBC China lifts export controls for 28 U.S. companies, but not key rare earths Calculated Risk Blog Fed Chair Powell: "Longer-run level of the policy rate have risen" CNBC Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell deliver live remarks on policy review CNBC Treasury yields tick lower as investors await more inflation data Federal Reserve Jefferson, Economic Outlook Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Unchanged in April Federal Reserve Waller, The Role of Economic Research in CentralBanking

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