Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates because mortgage pricing is primarily determined by bond prices.   The reaction function for rates is a bit complicated at first glance because tariffs can exert influence in opposite directions. To whatever extent trade policy results in lower economic growth, it would generally be good for rates, all other things being equal. To whatever extent trade policy results in higher prices, lower revenue, and lower foreign demand for US assets (which tends to correlate with trade relationships), it would push rates higher.  Over the weekend, the US and China agreed on a 90 day pause on the more extreme tariff brinksmanship.  While levels remain elevated enough to cause some inflation concern (remember: bad for rates), they've come down enough to alleviate some concern about the global economy (also bad for rates).  Today's move wasn't huge as far as mortgage rate volatility goes, but the average lender is now up to the highest levels in just over 2 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

May 12, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Jump to 2 Week Highs After US/China Trade Talks Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates because mortgage pricing is primarily determined by bond prices.   The reaction function for... (read more) MBS Commentary Yields Jump After Another 90 Day Tariff Pause 10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant reductions in tariffs for a period of 90 days (US imports down to 30% and exports down to 10%). This ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Coaching; Workflow, LO Mobile App, AI Products; Economist Selma Hepp Interview Nearly a thousand of us head to Manhattan in less than a week for the MBA’s Secondary Conference. In 2025 Q1, the median asking rent in New York City registered at $3,397, an increase of $179, or 5.6%, compared with a year ago. Sounds appropriate, gi... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.94% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.94% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.40% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.08% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.55% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.41% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.31% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.86% +0.02 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.12% -0.05 0.59 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% -0.01 0.49 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.92 +0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.92 +0.03 UMBS 6.0 100.88 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 99.20 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 100.95 +0.02 Pricing as of: 5/16 1:48AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4247 -0.0063 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.949 -0.025 5 YR Treasury 4.043 -0.012 7 YR Treasury 4.228 -0.018 10 YR Treasury 4.424 -0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.883 -0.008 Pricing as of: 5/16 1:48AM EST Latest Video Markets price out summer rate cuts U.S. Treasury: Deficit rises to $1 trillion Treasury Sec. Bessent: Likely to meet with China again 'in next few weeks' ... Renters are staying put, due to concern over the economy Around the Web CNBC House GOP tax bill calls for SALT deduction cap of $30,000 for most taxpayers. Here's who could benefit CNBC Treasury yields soar as U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs Federal Reserve Economic Outlook - Governor Adriana D. Kugler Calculated Risk Blog Housing May 12th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Fed April SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April CNBC U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 Marketwatch Trump rolls out U.K. trade agreement. It's a relief - but deals with other countries are more crucial. Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2% FXStreet Fed's Williams: Price stability is foundational for Fed CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors monitor global trade negotiations Calculated Risk Blog AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April

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