Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates because mortgage pricing is primarily determined by bond prices.   The reaction function for rates is a bit complicated at first glance because tariffs can exert influence in opposite directions. To whatever extent trade policy results in lower economic growth, it would generally be good for rates, all other things being equal. To whatever extent trade policy results in higher prices, lower revenue, and lower foreign demand for US assets (which tends to correlate with trade relationships), it would push rates higher.  Over the weekend, the US and China agreed on a 90 day pause on the more extreme tariff brinksmanship.  While levels remain elevated enough to cause some inflation concern (remember: bad for rates), they've come down enough to alleviate some concern about the global economy (also bad for rates).  Today's move wasn't huge as far as mortgage rate volatility goes, but the average lender is now up to the highest levels in just over 2 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

May 12, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 12, 2025 Mortgage Rates Jump to 2 Week Highs After US/China Trade Talks Mon, May 12, 2025 4:32PM Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates because mortgage pricing is primarily determined by bond prices.   The reaction function for rates is a bit complicated at first glance because tariffs can exert influence in opposite directions. To whatever extent trade policy results in lower economic growth, it would generally be good for rates, all other things being equal. To whatever extent trade policy results in higher prices, lower revenue, and lower foreign demand for US assets... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Yields Jump After Another 90 Day Tariff Pause Mon, May 12, 2025 11:01AM 10yr yields were up 8bps overnight to the highest levels since April 11th after weekend trade talks between the US and China resulted in significant reductions in tariffs for a period of 90 days (US imports down to 30% and exports down to 10%). This is better result than the market was expecting and it paves the way for endgame to be nearly unrecognizab... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 1:09PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 1:09PM EST Other News Coaching; Workflow, LO Mobile App, AI Products; Economist Selma Hepp Interview Mon, May 12, 2025 11:44AM Nearly a thousand of us head to Manhattan in less than a week for the MBA’s Secondary Conference. In 2025 Q1, the median asking rent in New York City registered at $3,397, an increase of $179, or 5.6%, compared with a year ago. Sounds appropriate, given wage growth. In other rental news, the Missouri legislature passed a bill allowing landlords to discrimina... (read more) Latest Video Markets price out summer rate cuts U.S. Treasury: Deficit rises to $1 trillion Treasury Sec. Bessent: Likely to meet with China again 'in next few weeks' ... Renters are staying put, due to concern over the economy Around the Web CNBC House GOP tax bill calls for SALT deduction cap of $30,000 for most taxpayers. Here's who could benefit CNBC Treasury yields soar as U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs Federal Reserve Economic Outlook - Governor Adriana D. Kugler Calculated Risk Blog Housing May 12th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 32.9% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Fed April SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in April CNBC U.S. and China agree to slash tariffs for 90 days Calculated Risk Blog Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2025 Marketwatch Trump rolls out U.K. trade agreement. It's a relief - but deals with other countries are more crucial. Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2% FXStreet Fed's Williams: Price stability is foundational for Fed CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors monitor global trade negotiations Calculated Risk Blog AAR: Rail Carloads and Intermodal Up in April

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