There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed's rate decision. The problem in today's case is that there wasn't even anything remotely resembling a decision, nor did anyone expect there to be. Markets were effectively betting on a zero percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and that's been the case for several weeks. Fed speakers had also been very clear in their shoulder shrugs during that time, saying that there are two big policy considerations in play right now, each arguing in the opposite direction. Specifically, the Fed has a mandate to "promote maximum employment," which could also be viewed as "promote a strong economy," and a mandate for "price stability," which is fancy talk for the Fed's inflation fighting role.  When Fed speakers have recently referred to those two mandates being in tension, they mean the potential drag on the economy from tariffs and tighter fiscal policy argues in favor of lower rates if it translates to higher unemployment and weaker economic data.  Contrast that to the potential increase in inflation due to tariffs, which argues in favor of higher rates. Simply put, there was nothing the Fed could do today but sit on its hands and wait to see which side of the mandate ended up having more compelling evidence, and nothing for Fed Chair Powell to do but reiterate that fact multiple times when almost every reporter asked a different version of the same question. 

May 7, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% +0.01%   6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% +0.01%   5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.10% +0.00%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 7, 2025 Mortgage Rates Lower After Fed Announcement, But Not Because of It Wed, May 7, 2025 3:35PM There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed's rate decision. The problem in today's case is that there wasn't even anything remotely resembling a decision, nor did anyone expect there to be. Markets were effectively betting on a zero percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and that's been the case for several weeks. Fed speakers had also been very clear in their shoulder shrugs during that time, saying that there are two big policy considerations in play right now, each arguing in ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.10% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.82% +0.11 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.93% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/23 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.19% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.44% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/23 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.42% -0.01 0.61 15 Yr. Fixed 5.77% 0.00 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.47% -0.13 0.53 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/15 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.77 -0.18   95.05 99.98 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.19 -0.13   97.47 101.33 10 YR Treasury 3.999 +0.052   3.932 4.780 Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed Wed, May 7, 2025 11:04AM Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular reason. End of year Fed Funds Rate expectations have been almost perfectly flat so far this week after falling a quarter point in the last week of April, and then jumping more than a quarter point at the end of la... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.90 -0.24 UMBS 5.0 99.77 -0.18 UMBS 5.5 101.19 -0.13 GNMA 4.5 98.03 -0.15 GNMA 5.0 100.00 +0.01 GNMA 5.5 100.99 -0.02 Pricing as of: 10/23 12:49PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.471 +0.028 5 YR Treasury 3.594 +0.044 7 YR Treasury 3.779 +0.051 10 YR Treasury 3.999 +0.052 30 YR Treasury 4.588 +0.058 Pricing as of: 10/23 12:49PM EST Other News DPA, AI, Processing, Verification Tools; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Interview on Fraud Threats Wed, May 7, 2025 11:48AM Most good loan originators are keenly aware of demographics in their area. Aren’t you tired of talking about a lack of inventory and builders’ supply lagging demand? Builders report that the number of unsold homes is the highest since 2009, and in Sunbelt MSAs, new homes are facing a lot of competition from existing homes coming on to the market. AIE writes ... (read more) Latest Video Fed's Powell: In hindsight, we could have tapered QE earlier Taylor Morrison CEO: There's certainly housing demand but we're not seeing ... Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Despite heightened uncertainty, the economy is sti... Fed's Powell: There's so much uncertainty around the scale, scope, timing a... Around the Web Eye on Housing Fed Remains on Pause with Rising Uncertainty CNBC Weekly mortgage demand suddenly surges, despite lingering economic uncertainty Forex Live The fiscal hawks are fighting back on the budget bill Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Eye on Housing Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises CNBC The Fed meets with uncertainty permeating the air. Here's what to expect Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as investors await Fed's interest rate decision CNBC Wobbling economy will push the Fed to cut interest rates later this year, CNBC survey finds Eye on Housing Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase Bloomberg (Video) FHFA's Pulte Says Agency is Building on Ideas From First Trump Term Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Forex Live US March international trade balance -140.5B vs -137.0B expected

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