There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed's rate decision. The problem in today's case is that there wasn't even anything remotely resembling a decision, nor did anyone expect there to be. Markets were effectively betting on a zero percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and that's been the case for several weeks. Fed speakers had also been very clear in their shoulder shrugs during that time, saying that there are two big policy considerations in play right now, each arguing in the opposite direction. Specifically, the Fed has a mandate to "promote maximum employment," which could also be viewed as "promote a strong economy," and a mandate for "price stability," which is fancy talk for the Fed's inflation fighting role.  When Fed speakers have recently referred to those two mandates being in tension, they mean the potential drag on the economy from tariffs and tighter fiscal policy argues in favor of lower rates if it translates to higher unemployment and weaker economic data.  Contrast that to the potential increase in inflation due to tariffs, which argues in favor of higher rates. Simply put, there was nothing the Fed could do today but sit on its hands and wait to see which side of the mandate ended up having more compelling evidence, and nothing for Fed Chair Powell to do but reiterate that fact multiple times when almost every reporter asked a different version of the same question. 

May 7, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Lower After Fed Announcement, But Not Because of It There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed's rate decision. The problem in today's case is that there wasn't even anything remotely resembling... (read more) MBS Commentary Not Expecting Fireworks From The Fed Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular reason. End of year Fed Funds Rate expectations have been almost perfectly flat so far this week after ... (read more) Rob Chrisman DPA, AI, Processing, Verification Tools; STRATMOR Tech Survey; Interview on Fraud Threats Most good loan originators are keenly aware of demographics in their area. Aren’t you tired of talking about a lack of inventory and builders’ supply lagging demand? Builders report that the number of unsold homes is the highest since 2009, and in Su... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.92% +0.00% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.26% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.33% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.04% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.57% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.35% +0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.26% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.76% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/8 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.84% -0.05 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.17% 0.00 0.65 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.86% -0.02 0.46 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/7 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.74 +0.01 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.74 +0.01 UMBS 6.0 100.73 +0.02 GNMA 5.5 99.29 +0.04 GNMA 6.0 100.75 +0.03 Pricing as of: 5/14 1:48AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4650 -0.0044 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.994 -0.012 5 YR Treasury 4.092 -0.006 7 YR Treasury 4.271 +0.000 10 YR Treasury 4.464 -0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.907 +0.001 Pricing as of: 5/14 1:48AM EST Latest Video Fed's Powell: In hindsight, we could have tapered QE earlier Taylor Morrison CEO: There's certainly housing demand but we're not seeing ... Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Despite heightened uncertainty, the economy is sti... Fed's Powell: There's so much uncertainty around the scale, scope, timing a... Around the Web Eye on Housing Fed Remains on Pause with Rising Uncertainty CNBC Weekly mortgage demand suddenly surges, despite lingering economic uncertainty Forex Live The fiscal hawks are fighting back on the budget bill Calculated Risk Blog 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in April Eye on Housing Prices for New Homes Continue to Drop as Existing Rises CNBC The Fed meets with uncertainty permeating the air. Here's what to expect Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased in April; Up 4.9% Year-over-year CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as investors await Fed's interest rate decision CNBC Wobbling economy will push the Fed to cut interest rates later this year, CNBC survey finds Eye on Housing Mortgage Activity Levels Off in April as Rates Increase Bloomberg (Video) FHFA's Pulte Says Agency is Building on Ideas From First Trump Term Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Forex Live US March international trade balance -140.5B vs -137.0B expected

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