Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it's not the most vigorous canary anyone's ever seen, it also wasn't dead. That wasn't good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case, tariff/policy/uncertainty impact on econ data). ISM is also often heavily traded due to its proximity to the big jobs report (in this case, the following morning). If nothing else, the market's willingness to react to economic data once again is fully confirmed. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 241k vs 224k f'cast, 223k prev Continued Claims 1916k vs 1860k f'cast, 1833k prev ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.7 vs 48.0 f'cast ISM Prices Paid 69.8 vs 70.3 f'cast, 69.4 prev Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr yields are down 3.5bps at 4.126 after claims data. 10:23 AM weaker after ISM.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.6bps at 4.196 12:27 PM MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 6.7 bps at 4.227. 02:30 PM MBS now down a quarter point and 10yr up 7.7bps at 4.238

May 1, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 1, 2025 Rates Pull Back Slightly After Stronger Economic Data Thu, May 1, 2025 3:32PM After enjoying a calm, steady winning streak so far this week, mortgage rates finally experienced a bump back toward slightly higher levels on Thursday. The move followed the release of a closely watched report on the manufacturing sector. The economic data wasn't strong in outright terms.  In fact, it suggested contraction in the sector. But what matters is that it was stronger than the market expected. In general, stronger data causes weakness in the bond market which, in turn, results in mortgage lenders offering higher rates. Today's change was just as small as any other day this we... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Thu, May 1, 2025 4:19PM Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it's not the most vigorous canary anyone's ever seen, it also wasn't dead. That wasn't good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting f... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:18AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:18AM EST Other News Secondary Database, AI Information, Consulting, DSCR, Non-QM Products; Freddie Earnings $62 Billion Thu, May 1, 2025 11:51AM May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere's Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, l... (read more) Latest Video Fed isn't losing control of inflation or inflation expectations, says Roth ... ISM manufacturing reading beats forecasts despite tariffs Prospective homebuyer: Unknown rising expenses due to tariffs cause hesitat... ISM PMI contracts further in April: Here's what you need to know Around the Web CNBC Automakers report significant April sales increases amid tariff fear-buying, but the good times may not last CNBC Weekly jobless claims surge to 241,000, more than expected, in latest sign of economic trouble Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 0.8% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.5% below 2022 peak Calculated Risk Blog April Employment Preview Forex Live US March construction spending -0.5% vs 0.2% estimate CNBC Treasury yields lower as traders price in lower growth and mixed inflation readings Forex Live April US S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.2 vs 50.7 prelim Forex Live US March PCE core +2.6% y/y vs +2.6% expected Seeking Alpha Chicago PMI contracts more than expected in April Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 48.7% in April Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 6.1% in March; Down 0.6% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.7% US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Statement of Acting Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Brian Smith

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