In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways If you are following along with intraday market movement and not taking breaks to zoom the chart out, volatility seems to be rather extreme at the moment. Bonds began the day in stronger territory, bounced back to unchanged in the first 30 minutes, rallied sharply after data, gave up the rally almost immediately thereafter and then continued selling back to unchanged levels just before the 3pm CME close.  All of the above transpired in a 9bp range in 10yr yields, but moved of it was in a 4bp range. Tariff headlines are certainly good for some of that in-range volatility, but we have yet to see them set any big picture tones.  Today's best attempt was the selling spree just after 10am ET following news that tariffs on Mexico would be delayed until March 1st.  Econ Data / Events S&P Manufacturing PMI 51.2 vs 50.1 f'cast, 49.4 prev ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.9 vs 49.8 f'cast, 49.3 prev ISM Prices 54.9 vs 52.6 f'cast, 52.5 prev Market Movement Recap 09:56 AM Slightly stronger overnight as stocks swoon on tariff announcements.  MBS up 1 ticks and 10y down 2.9bps at 4.508 10:54 AM Lots of volatility surrounding 10am ISM data and US/Mexico tariff pause. MBS now down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.526, both near the day's weakest levels. 02:06 PM Mostly holding a fairly narrow range, but currently at the lower end of that range with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr yields down 0.3bps at 4.534 02:53 PM Just off weakest levels of the day. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.54

February 3, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Feb 3, 2025 Mortgage Rates Stay Flat Despite Underlying Market Volatility Mon, Feb 3, 2025 4:10PM We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new tariffs over the weekend. But rates are starting the current week right in line with Friday's latest levels (themselves, little-changed from any other day last week).  Part of the paradox is down to timing.  Specifically, the bonds that underly day-to-day rate movement are indeed experiencing volatility, but it's all coming out in the wash, so to speak.  Big moves in one direction have frequently and rapidly been offset by moves in ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways Mon, Feb 3, 2025 4:21PM In-Range Volatility on Tariff Headlines, But Broadly Sideways If you are following along with intraday market movement and not taking breaks to zoom the chart out, volatility seems to be rather extreme at the moment. Bonds began the day in stronger territory, bounced back to unchanged in the first 30 minutes, rallied... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/6 11:50PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/6 11:50PM EST Other News Processing, Underwriting, Broker, LOS Products; Conforming News; Tariffs Announced Mon, Feb 3, 2025 11:52AM Where should we begin this week? There’s President Trump making good on one of his campaign promises over the weekend, and it wasn’t ending Russia’s attack on Ukraine or bringing down the price of gas and eggs. He checked off announcing planned tariffs. Sure, you’ll probably pay more for avocados for your guacamole for the Super Bowl party (or switch entirel... (read more) Latest Video Tariffs will have an inflationary impact that'll be dampening to growth, sa... Homebuilder association asks Trump to exempt building materials from tariff... Boston Fed president Collins: Underlying trend of inflation is going in the... Trump pauses Mexico tariffs for one month after agreement on border troops Around the Web CNBC Renter affordability has improved here's what's behind the trend Marketwatch Fed interest-rate cuts might not come anytime soon, two top officials say CNBC Renter affordability has improved here's what's behind the trend CNBC Trump tariffs on Mexico to be paused one month, Sheinbaum says, as she announces troop border deployment CNBC In a switch, Trump approves the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady Calculated Risk Blog Fed January SLOOS Survey: Banks reported Weaker Demand for Residential Real Estate The Basis Point Homebuilders push Trump for tariff exemptions to stem affordability crisis Calculated Risk Blog Housing Feb 3rd Weekly Update: Inventory Down 0.3% Week-over-week, Up 27.7% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog ICE Mortgage Monitor: Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011 Forex Live US January ISM manufacturing 50.9 vs 49.8 prior CNBC Euro zone inflation rises to hotter-than-expected 2.5% in January Eye on Housing Fringe Benefits Add 18% to Home Building Payroll Calculated Risk Blog Construction Spending Increased 0.5% in December

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