'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't officially changed. News stories are saying rates went lower this week, but they're higher. And there's even talk of a big refi boom, but as you may have guessed, that's also not exactly right. Rates . Rates continued to move slightly higher (yes, higher), while remaining close enough to long-term lows.  This chart of 10yr Treasury yields (a proxy for longer-term rates like mortgages) does a good job of capturing all of the positive momentum seen in recent months as well as the mild correction that began after last week's Fed rate cut. Things look even milder if we focus on mortgage rates.  In fact, one measure of mortgage rates (Freddie Mac's weekly survey) is so mild that it actually went LOWER this week.  Sadly, Freddie's numbers don't align with reality this week.  We are normally able to use the objective daily numbers from MND to reconcile such discrepancies, but it's not possible in this case.  If you want a deeper dive on this phenomenon, here you go: Mortgage Rates are 100% NOT Lower This Week. Loan Limits and Home Prices Other misdirection plays are much easier to explain.  For instance, you may see some lenders advertising new conforming loan limits that are near, or over $800k.  Official conforming loan limits are announced at the very end of November.  So who's lying?

September 27, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 27, 2024 Refi Booms, Loan Limits, and Mortgage Rate Misdirection Fri, Sep 27, 2024 5:10PM 'Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven't officially changed. News stories are saying rates went lower this week, but they're higher. And there's even talk of a big refi boom, but as you may have guessed, that's also not exactly right. Rates . Rates continued to move slightly higher (yes, higher), while remaining close enough to long-term lows.  This chart of 10yr Treasury yields (a proxy for longer-term rates like mortgages) does a good job of capturing all of the positive momen... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Inflation Data No Longer The Big To-Do, But At Least It's Not Hurting Fri, Sep 27, 2024 12:05PM Just a few months ago, the big ticket inflation reports were just as relevant as the jobs report in terms of their ability to cause movement in the bond market.  As CPI/PCE calmed down over the past 5 months, bonds and the Fed shifted gears to place the heaviest focus on the jobs report and other labor market indicators.  But inflation will continu... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:29AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:29AM EST Other News Credit Scoring, AI Closing, POS Tools; STRATMOR on Customer Experience; Misc. Investor News Fri, Sep 27, 2024 11:49AM “Who was the first person that used technology? Moses. He had two tablets that were connected to the cloud.” Technology is a two-edged sword. On the one hand, having everything on your phone is easy… until you lose it. Or it is confiscated. Tempted to voluntarily hand your phone to the police? I have heard repeatedly, “Don’t!” And here’s why. Technology has ... (read more) Latest Video Final September consumer sentiment read improves to best level since April Labor market will now determine the Fed's rate trajectory, says RBC's Andrz... PCE does not change our base case for quarter-point cuts through rest of ye... Inflation is doing exactly what the FOMC hoped it would, says Fmr. Fed Pres... Around the Web CNBC Key Fed inflation gauge at 2.2% in August, lower than expected Calculated Risk Blog ICE: "Home prices continued to cool in August, with prices up +3.0%" YoY CNBC The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What's going on? Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Increases to 5.3% YoY in August Eye on Housing State and Local Tax Revenue 2024 Second Quarter Analysis CNBC Treasury yields dip ahead of key inflation data Eye on Housing Over Two-Thirds of New Homes in 2023 Feature Porches CNBC U.S. new vehicle sales expected to have struggled during third quarter Marketwatch U.S. economy grew 3.0% in spring and GDP looks set to repeat that feat in third quarter Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: Around 3% Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.2% in August; Spending increased 0.2% Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.8% below 2022 peak Calculated Risk Blog September Vehicle Sales Forecast: 16.1 million SAAR, Up 2% YoY

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