As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates are driven by multiple factors.  At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy.  In general, higher inflation and economic strength coincide with higher rates.   Inflation and economic data evolved in such a way as to offer some light at the end of the high rate tunnel at the end of 2023.  Even the Fed acknowledged the shift by lowering its 2024 rate projection by half a percent in December.   But 2024 has proven to be a frustrating year so far for everyone who'd been hoping that inflation and rates were finally on the way back down.  We weren't necessarily expecting to see any new fireworks this week, but we got them anyway. The trouble began on Thursday morning with the release of the quarterly GDP data.  One component of GDP is "personal consumption expenditures" (PCE).  One manifestation of the PCE data is a price index which in turn has a variation that excludes food and energy to give us the Core PCE Price Index. Core PCE is akin to Core CPI and it happens to be preferred by the Fed when it comes to tracking the 2% inflation target.  There are several different Core PCE measurement methods, which can make things fairly confusing on weeks when the data is released.  They include:

April 26, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 26, 2024 Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Thursday's Weakness After Friday's Economic Data Fri, Apr 26, 2024 5:23PM As 2024 has progressed, economic data--especially inflation data--have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected. Rates are driven by multiple factors.  At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy.  In general, higher inflation and economic strength coincide with higher rates.   Inflation and economic data evolved in such a way as to offer some light at the end of the high rate tunnel at the end of 2023.  Even the Fed acknowledged the shift by lowering its 2024 r... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Deep Dive on Thursday and Friday's PCE Discrepancy and Market Reaction Fri, Apr 26, 2024 12:25PM WARNING: once you get past the 1st paragraph here, things start to get a bit "mathy" and esoteric.  The takeaway is that there's an actual way to reconcile today's 0.3 vs 0.3 monthly core PCE result against yesterday's 3.7 vs 3.4 annual result.  Yesterday's GDP data included the Core PCE Price Index, which came in at 3.7% vs 3.4% forecast.  ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 1:48AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 1:48AM EST Other News Servicing, MISMO Consulting Products; STRATMOR and Decisioning; UWM and UMortgage; California on DU and LP Fri, Apr 26, 2024 11:52AM There seems to be a bit of a baby boom going on out there. Prospective home buyers who need a place for a growing family quickly find out that residential lending isn’t without its share of tears. Next time you’re dealing with an upset borrower or loan officer, here’s something you can try. “We are committed to solving the rental crisis in Australia. By prov... (read more) Latest Video April's final consumer sentiment read drops to 77.2 Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than exp... Still holding on to our July Fed rate cut forecast, says MetLife's Drew Mat... Markets 'spooked' by sticky inflation, says John Hancock's Emily Roland Around the Web CNBC Key Fed inflation measure rose 2.8% in March from a year ago, more than expected Marketwatch Housing supply surges by up to 50% in these metro areas and many sellers are being forced to slash their asking prices CNBC New home sales inch higher despite 7% mortgage rates: 'There's more opportunity,' economist says Eye on Housing How Rising Costs Affect Home Affordability Marketwatch Is another inflation scare coming? GDP seems to say yes. Eye on Housing Personal Saving Rate Falls to 3.2% in March wells fargo Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending Calculated Risk Blog Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rate Decreased, Multi-family Decreased in March Eye on Housing Housing Share of GDP Surpasses 16% for First Time Since 2022 Marketwatch Pending home sales see unexpected jump in March, despite rising mortgage rates Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.5% in March; Spending increased 0.8% CNBC Treasury yields ease slightly ahead of key inflation data Marketwatch Deutsche Bank expects fewer U.S. commercial real estate provisions in second half

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