Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a surprisingly resilient day relative to the market moving data.  When NFP beats forecasts by 100k (today: 303k vs 200k f'cast), we tend to see big losses.  It was no surprise to see losses, but possibly surprising to see bonds almost back to pre-NFP levels 2 hours later.  Even after the 3pm sell-off, MBS are still in line with yesterday morning's levels.  That's better than we'd expect, based on the data and one of the only conclusions is that the market is more anxious to see next week's CPI on Wednesday. Econ Data / Events Nonfarm Payrolls 303k vs 200k f'cast, 270k prev Unemployment Rate 3.8 vs 3.9 f'cast, 3.9 prev Earnings 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.2 prev (revised up 0.1) Market Movement Recap 09:36 AM Pretty stable after initial losses.  MBS down 7 ticks (.23) and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.377. 10:55 AM Decent recovery, but it's not continuing for now.  MBS down only 5 ticks (.16).  10yr up 5.5bps at 4.369 (briefly made it down to 4.337. 02:28 PM Fairly flat in the PM.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).  10yr up 6bps at 4.372. 03:17 PM Weakness at 3pm CME close.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up almost 8bps at 4.391.

April 5, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 5, 2024 Mortgage Rates Surprisingly Steady Despite Strong Jobs Report Fri, Apr 5, 2024 2:56PM Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve.  It refers to the fact that economic data will guide the future path of interest rate decisions.   While rates always depend on data, the data outlook isn't always as uncertain as it has been in the past few years.  At times, we've been waiting for inflation and job growth to stop surging.  At other times, we've been waiting for them to confirm a move in the other direction.  Either way, there are a few reports that financial markets watch mo... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Fri, Apr 5, 2024 3:37PM Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a surprisingly resilient day relative to the market moving data.  When NFP beats forecasts by 100k (today: 303k vs 200k f'cast), we tend to see big losses.  It was no surprise to see losses, but possibly... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 12:49AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 12:49AM EST Other News CRM Product; STRATMOR CD Workshop; FHFA on Lock-In Effect; Training and Webinars Fri, Apr 5, 2024 11:47AM I head to Central Texas today (A53 on Southwest; something about maybe seeing an eclipse); statewide Texas home ownership rate is about 64 percent. This is a shade lower than the 66 percent nationwide. (Home ownership & operational challenges facing lenders are a couple of the topics Mike Metz with Arizona’s V.I.P. Mortgage will discuss today at 2PM CT.)... (read more) Latest Video Goldman Sachs' Hatzius: Next week's CPI report will be more important than ... Former St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: March jobs report shows 'the economy is... Friday's strong jobs numbers will limit the Fed to two interest rate cuts, ... Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan: Too soon to think about cutting interest ... Around the Web CNBC Fed Governor Bowman says additional rate hike could be needed if inflation stays high CNBC Job growth totaled 303,000 in March, better than expected, and unemployment was 3.8% Marketwatch Fed's Logan says 'much too soon to think about cutting rates' Calculated Risk Blog Q1 GDP Tracking: 2% to 2.5% CNBC Here's where the jobs are for March 2024 in one chart in one chart Calculated Risk Blog Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in March; Down 14.7% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 25.0% YoY; New Listings Down 7.8% YoY Market Watch Treasury yields edge higher ahead of jobs report CNBC Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday's report Marketwatch Barkin says Fed would be 'smart' to take its time to cut rates due to persistent inflation Marketwatch March jobs report forecast: 200,000 new jobs and 3.8% unemployment Marketwatch Fed's Goolsbee says hot inflation readings 'should not knock us off path' back to 2% target Fannie Mae Payroll Growth Continues to Beat Expectations, While Manufacturing Activity Ends 18-Month Slump

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