Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn't been a great week in general.  The average lender jumped quickly over 7% for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate on Monday.  The next two days were much less interesting. Now today, the not-so-great week is showing some signs of promise.  Without much by way of provocation or justification, rates dipped just a hair under 7%.  The nuts and bolts explanation is that the bond market improved this morning following a somewhat weaker reading in Jobless Claims, but other factors relating to timing and recently defensive pricing strategies among lenders help flesh out the story. More importantly, everything that has happened up until today is of secondary importance to what's about to happen when it comes to interest rate volatility, or at least to the POTENTIAL for volatility.  That's because tomorrow morning brings the Employment Situation, otherwise known as "the jobs report."  Along with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), this is one of two reports with vastly more power to cause drama for rates than any other report. The jobs report will be released at 8:30am tomorrow morning.  There is no way to know if it will be good or bad for rates ahead of time--only that it can do either of those things in grand fashion.  That said, it occasionally threads the needle without much fanfare.  If that were to happen, it would place even more focus on the next CPI report which happens to be coming out next week.  

April 4, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 4, 2024 Nice Move Lower in Mortgage Rates Ahead, But Tomorrow is a New Day Thu, Apr 4, 2024 3:59PM Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn't been a great week in general.  The average lender jumped quickly over 7% for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate on Monday.  The next two days were much less interesting. Now today, the not-so-great week is showing some signs of promise.  Without much by way of provocation or justification, rates dipped just a hair under 7%.  The nuts and bolts explanation is that the bond market improved this morning following a somewhat weaker reading in Jobless Claims, but other factors ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Light Data Day Leaves Focus on Friday's Jobs Report Thu, Apr 4, 2024 12:02PM Thursday is shaping up to be a calmer and less eventful trading day than the two most recent examples.  It's similar in the sense that there was some weakness to overcome this morning, but pleasantly different in the sense that the weakness was overcome very quickly.  The morning's economic data played some role in the resilience with both Challeng... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 6:30AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 6:30AM EST Other News LOS, AOT Execution, HELOC, HMDA Dashboard Products; TPO News; Ocwen to Become Onity Thu, Apr 4, 2024 11:30AM Think you can predict the future? I don’t think so. (Click on that link and think about that caption.) Some foresaw the drop in volume and income after cramming 4-6 years’ worth of production into 2020 & 2021, others were too busy funding loans to make predictions. But things have certainly changed. According to Curinos, March 2024 funded mortgage volume... (read more) Latest Video Fed's Harker: Inflation is still too high Richmond Fed's Barkin advocates patience on rate cuts Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: Policy stance is restrictive Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic: Expect one rate cut in the fourth qua... Around the Web Marketwatch March jobs report forecast: 200,000 new jobs and 3.8% unemployment Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 221,000 Marketwatch Barkin says Fed would be 'smart' to take its time to cut rates due to persistent inflation CNBC Job gains expected again in March. Here are all the things to look for in Friday's report Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 25.0% YoY; New Listings Down 7.8% YoY Marketwatch Fed's Goolsbee says hot inflation readings 'should not knock us off path' back to 2% target Marketwatch Options traders see rising risk of Fed rate hike following oil rally, solid U.S. data CNBC 10-year Treasury yield slightly higher as investors await Fed speeches, economic data CNBC Fed's Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit at $68.9 Billion in February Calculated Risk Blog Moody's: Apartment Vacancy Rate Unchanged in Q1; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High Calculated Risk Blog Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog ISM Services Index decreases to 51.4% in March

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