Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation report that did the most damage. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale inflation running hotter than expected by quite a wide margin overall (0.6% month-over-month versus a median forecast of 0.3%).  Even after stripping out more volatile food and energy prices (i.e. "core" inflation), PPI was up 0.3% versus forecasts of 0.2%.   These might seem like small numbers, but keep in mind that the Fed's inflation target is 2.0% annually at the core level.  Core readings of 0.4% in CPI and 0.3% in PPI pencil out to 4.8% and 3.6% respectively.  Inflation is the biggest concern for interest rates, so it's no surprise to see rates moving higher.  Today's increase brings the average to tier, conventional, 30yr fixed rate back above 7% for the first time in a week.

March 14, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 14, 2024 Mortgage Rates Back Above 7% Thu, Mar 14, 2024 4:18PM Even though Tuesday's consumer-oriented inflation report (CPI) had the biggest potential to cause drama for rates, it was today's wholesale inflation report that did the most damage. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed wholesale inflation running hotter than expected by quite a wide margin overall (0.6% month-over-month versus a median forecast of 0.3%).  Even after stripping out more volatile food and energy prices (i.e. "core" inflation), PPI was up 0.3% versus forecasts of 0.2%.   These might seem like small numbers, but keep in mind that the Fed's inflation target is 2.0... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 2 Out of 3 Reports Agree Rates Should be Higher Today Thu, Mar 14, 2024 11:46AM Apart from Tuesday (CPI day), today is this week's next biggest deal in terms of scheduled economic data.  The trifecta included Jobless Claims, PPI, and Retail Sales.  Of these, Retail Sales has been the bigger market mover on average, but by a smaller margin in recent months.  Today's example missed the consensus, but not by much.  It w... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:00AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 10:00AM EST Other News Hedging, Multi-Family Servicing, CU Appraisal, Imaging, POS Tools; Conventional Conforming News Thu, Mar 14, 2024 11:37AM Fun with numbers: Did you know that, at age 22, Billie Eilish has won twice as many Oscars (2) than 80-year-old Martin Scorsese (1)? (And yes, Samuel L. Jackson, Tom Cruise, and Johnny Depp have won a cumulative total of 0.) Lenders and vendors didn’t have a lot of fun with numbers in 2023, with overall production dropping from $4.4 trillion in 2021 to $1.6 ... (read more) Latest Video The likelihood of fewer than three rate cuts in 2024: Here's what you need ... Interest rates definitely have an impact on affordability, says Lennar Co-C... The economic data haven't been 'as bad as expected', says Regions Bank CIO ... Commercial real estate experienced stages of grief, 'now we're at acceptanc... Around the Web CNBC Here's when the Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates, according to investment strategists CNBC Wholesale inflation rose 0.6% in February, more than expected Eye on Housing Rising Auto Loan Debt, Declining Student Loans for 4Q23 Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March 2024 Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 21.7% YoY; New Listings up 15.8% YoY Eye on Housing Producer Prices Up in February CNBC Deflation: Here's where prices fell in February 2024 in one chart Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in February CNBC This week provided a reminder that inflation isn't going away anytime soon Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 209,000 CNBC Treasury yields inch higher as investors await wholesale inflation data CNBC European Central Bank chief economist says we need to 'take our time' to get rate cuts right CNBC Renters face a competitive spring market: What to know about 3 kinds of properties you may see

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