Home prices fell sharply again in August according to the two leading home price indices, both released this morning.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) logged a month-over-month decline of 0.7%--a modest acceleration from the 0.6% decline seen in July.  The S&P Case Shiller 20 city index fell 1.3% in today's report compared to a 0.7% drop last month. Does this mean prices are falling?  Technically, yes.  Using FHFA as an example, it means that a home that sold for $397k in June would have sold for roughly $392k in August.  Moreover, the shift from gains to losses has been incredibly abrupt.  The following chart shows the different in the monthly price movement from the same period last year.  As abrupt as the shift has been in terms of the monthly trajectory, home prices are typically tracked in terms of outright year-over-year changes.  While it's true that year-over-year gains are lower than they were a few months ago, they're still strongly positive.  In fact, the home that sold for $392k in August of this year would have sold for roughly $350k in August of last year, a difference of 12%, year over year. As the chart above suggests, 12% year over year is very high--higher even than the run up to the mortgage meltdown in 2007-2009.  That said, the 12% number is likely to continue lower in the coming months.  That will be true even if prices don't go any lower simply because subsequent months will be compared to higher and higher prices in the past.  

October 25, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Home Prices Fell Even Faster in August, But Still Up Big Year-Over-Year Home prices fell sharply again in August according to the two leading home price indices, both released this morning.  The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) logged a month-over-month decline of 0.7%--a modest acceleration from the 0.6% decli... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Fall Yet Again. How Long Can This Last? Yesterday, we noted that the 2nd consecutive day of improvement for mortgage rates was a rare accomplishment in the context of the past few months.  Now today, the winning streak is extended to 3 days making it a bit of unicorn and begging the q... (read more) MBS Commentary Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed? Strong Showing For Bonds. So Have Things Changed? Bonds rallied overnight of their own volition and in concert with overseas markets.  Gains were steady and not insignificant.  Unlike many recent ex... (read more) Rob Chrisman Jumbo ARM, Subservicer Products; FHFA/Freddie/Fannie News In the press, here’s some information on the hit the Fed’s balance sheet has taken give the bond market selloff. And here at the MBA’s annual, some of the talk is about new products and about cost cutting. Yes, lenders are looking for new products, o... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.91% +0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.91% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.29% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.02% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.45% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.30% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 5/8 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.22% +0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.76% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/8 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.17% -0.03 0.76 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% -0.02 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/30 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.09 -0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.10 -0.01 UMBS 6.0 100.98 +0.01 GNMA 5.5 99.40 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 100.82 +0.03 Pricing as of: 5/9 4:55AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3838 +0.0068 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.870 -0.004 5 YR Treasury 3.985 -0.002 7 YR Treasury 4.176 -0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.383 +0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.852 +0.019 Pricing as of: 5/9 4:55AM EST Latest Video This will be the best recession for banks, due to higher rates, says Wells ... Consumer Confidence Index misses expectations, worst month since July U.S. economy showing striking degree of resilience, says White House adviso... The 9am Bond Report - October 25, 2022 Around the Web Eye on Housing More Buyers Taking a Look at New Construction CNBC Home prices cooled at a record pace in August, S&P Case-Shiller says Eye on Housing Prospect of Higher Rates Leads Some to Consider Buying a Home Calculated Risk Blog Comments on August Case-Shiller and FHFA House Prices fhfa FHFA Dropping Some FTHB Fees, But Raising Cash-Out Fees Calculated Risk Blog Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decelerate" to 13.0% year-over-year increase in August CNBC Treasury yields decline as markets ponder future Fed policy Calculated Risk Blog October Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Signs of Life" Calculated Risk Blog Final Look at Local Housing Markets in September Calculated Risk Blog Housing October 24th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased, New High for 2022 Calculated Risk Blog Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC JPMorgan president says a recession may be price to pay to beat inflation, market bottom not in yet CNBC European markets set for flat open as investors watch earnings, monetary policy

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