Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate All the normal disclaimers are in order: - This is a rising rate environment until proven otherwise. - Floating is best thought of as an intraday endeavor.  - Things can always change very quickly.  - Any notion of a ceiling is best measured in days and weeks for now.  And the list goes on.  With the disclaimers out of the way, we can talk about the mounting evidence for a consolidation that puts an end to the rising rate trend of early 2021. Today may be the first day where it makes any sense to do so, even if it falls well short of making any guarantees. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Market Movement Recap 08:29 AM Bonds added to yesterday's late-day strength with a bit of follow-through in Asia.  EU bonds were weaker at the open and pulled TSY yields slightly higher, but not out of positive territory.  10yr down 1.2bps at 1.695 and 2.5 UMBS up 2 ticks (+0.06). 11:12 AM Tentative, early gains giving way to better mid-day gains.  Fed's Treasury buying operation may have helped.  There are also a few decently-sized block trades reported through CME, with one recent example possibly helping drive additional strength.  10yr yields down 4bps at 1.66+.  MBS are up a quarter point. 01:42 PM Bonds have been sideways near the day's best levels since the last update (2.5 hours, give or take) but with MBS underperforming just slightly.  2.5 coupons are 3 ticks (.09) lower over that time, but still up more than an eighth of a point on the day.   04:00 PM MBS-specific weakness ended shortly after the last update and they joined Treasuries in an afternoon sideways grind at or near the day's best levels.  Essentially all of today's gains could be chalked up to tradeflows and technicals (i.e. bonds are not reacting to any new news).

April 6, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 6, 2021 Another Decent Day For Mortgage Rates Thu, Apr 1, 2021 4:12PM Mortgage rates have been trying to find a ceiling in the past 3 weeks after rising at the quickest pace in years. That search seemed to be going well until late last week when rates failed to break below the floor that's blocked other recent attempts at progress. The situation deteriorated at the start of the current week with the average lender back in line with long-term highs on Tuesday. We caught a break after that with the average lender showing modest improvements both yesterday and today. How much improvement? Prepare to be underwhelmed. It's far easier to count victories as an "absence... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate Tue, Apr 6, 2021 4:25PM Evidence For a Ceiling Continues to Accumulate All the normal disclaimers are in order: - This is a rising rate environment until proven otherwise. - Floating is best thought of as an intraday endeavor.  - Things can always change very quickly.  - Any notion of a ceiling is best measured in days and wee... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:43PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:43PM EST Other News Realtors Say Staging a Home Increased Offered Prices, Cut Marketing Time Tue, Apr 6, 2021 11:04AM Does staging really work? That was among the home buying and selling topics covered in a new survey from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) and the answer appears to be "yes." Eight-two percent of buyers' agents said home staging made it easier for a buyer to visualize the property as a future home. Staging also appears to increase how much buye... (read more) Home Price Surge Seen Slowing After Record Run Tue, Apr 6, 2021 10:46AM CoreLogic's February Home Price Index (HPI) essentially echoed that the price report last week from Black Knight. The company said that its index recorded its highest annual growth since 2006 at 10.4 percent. Demand continues to clash with an historically low supply creating affordability challenges, especially as mortgage rates also begin to rise. The HPI i... (read more) Despite Pandemic, Homeowners View Housing as a Good Investment Tue, Apr 6, 2021 11:00AM Fannie Mae says results from its fourth quarter 2020 National Housing Survey show that consumers continue to view homeownership as a good investment. Respondents were asked about various investment types, including stocks, bonds, homes, and savings accounts. Seventy-five percent of respondents indicated that homes are a "safe" investment, ranking just slight... (read more) MLO Jobs; Post-Close, Processing, Sec. Marketing Tools; Conventional Conforming Shifts Tue, Apr 6, 2021 10:13AM For some good news, any company that holds or buys servicing has seen their balance sheet improve with the rise in mortgage rates. For more good news, reverse mortgage lenders are licking their chops over the news that homeowners, aged 62 and older, saw their collective housing wealth increase by $234 billion to a record of $8.05 trillion , according to data... (read more) Latest Video Market doesn't think tax hikes will happen, says trader Job openings rise to 7.4 million, versus estimates of 7 million The 9am Bond Report -April 06, 2021 Credit Suisse caught in the cross-hairs of the Archegos Capital scandal Around the Web Reuters S&P 500 resumes record run on economic rebound hopes Reuters Wall Street takes a breather, Treasury yields dip as eyes turn to Fed Zillow Zillow Group Population Science Homeowner Survey: Q1 2021 Calculated Risk Blog Las Vegas Real Estate in March: Sales up 36% YoY, Inventory down 68% YoY Calculated Risk Blog BLS: Job Openings Increased to 7.4 Million in February Fannie Mae Fannie Mae Announces the Results of its Nineteenth Reperforming Loan Sale Transaction Calculated Risk Blog Tuesday: Job Openings Calculated Risk Blog CoreLogic: House Prices up 10.4% Year-over-year in February CNBC Treasury yields fall ahead of February job openings data Reuters Strong economic data lifts Dow, S&P 500 to record closes Calculated Risk Blog Denver Real Estate in March: Sales Up 1% YoY, Active Inventory Down 67% CNBC "This is not the time for amateurs," says real estate agent of fiercely competitive housing market Zillow Acceleration in Student Loan Debt Could Block Millions From Homeownership

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