No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales this morning and, despite more of an acknowledgment, did the same after a strong 20yr bond auction at 1pm ET.  Yields held well inside the range set by last Friday's extremes as bonds wait to see what the Fed has to say about higher long-term rates, the Fed Funds Rate forecast, and the prospect of extending a policy (SLR) that has helped big banks buy more Treasuries).   Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Retail Sales -3.0 vs -0.5 f'cast, 7.6 prev Industrial Production  -2.2 vs 0.3 f'cast, 1.1 prev Builder Confidence 82 vs 83 f'cast, 84 prev Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM paradoxically weaker despite retail sales coming in lower than expected.  10yr gave up modest overnight gains... now unchanged.  MBS are 1-2 ticks (0.03-0.06) worse depending on the moment. 12:44 PM Weaker since just after 10am in an apparent pre-auction concession (20yr auction at 1pm).  10yr just turned negative and UMBS 2.5 coupons are down 2 ticks (-.06) at the lows of the day. 02:57 PM Just a bit more weakness versus the last update.  There as a brief correction into positive territory after the strong 20yr auction, but it was traded out in less than an hour.  Now at the weakest levels of the day, albeit only just.

March 16, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 16, 2021 Much Less Volatile Week, But Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated Thu, Mar 11, 2021 3:50PM Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for higher interest rates--something that was painfully obvious in February when the average mortgage lender jumped by half a percentage point in conventional 30yr fixed rates. March saw rates move just a bit higher at first, but they've since leveled off --at least for now. The current week hasn't done anything to jeopardize that stability so far, an... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed Tue, Mar 16, 2021 3:53PM No Help From Strong Auction or Weak Data; Waiting on The Fed Bonds shrugged off a big miss in Retail Sales this morning and, despite more of an acknowledgment, did the same after a strong 20yr bond auction at 1pm ET.  Yields held well inside the range set by last Friday's extremes as bonds wait to see what the F... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:52PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:52PM EST Other News How Remote Workers Could Eventually Disrupt Housing Market Mon, Mar 15, 2021 11:27AM A study by ApartmentList has identified a new category of workers, arising, at least in part, out of the pandemic. Lynn Pollack, writing in GlobeSt , says this "untethered class" hold remote types of jobs and have little reason to stay put. They have a median age of 32 and are "on the precipice of settling down." They are currently renting, living alone or w... (read more) Home Equity Gains are Breaking 8 Year Records Fri, Mar 12, 2021 1:21PM Homeowners' housing wealth grew by record numbers in the fourth quarter of last year . CoreLogic, in its Home Equity Report for the period, says the average equity in a U.S. home increased 16.2 percent since the fourth quarter of 2019, the greatest increase in seven years. Homeowners gained an average of $26,300 in equity and the aggregate increase across th... (read more) Forbearances Reach Their Lowest Levels in Almost a Year Fri, Mar 12, 2021 11:15AM Black Knight notes a large improvement in forbearance statistics during the week ended March 9. The number of loans in active plans dropped by 77,000 over the week, the largest single week decline since early January, and lowered the number of plans to 2.6 million, a -2.9 percent change. At the end of the reporting period the remaining loans represent 4.9 pe... (read more) MLO, Recruiting, Training Jobs; Sales, Doc, Processing Tools; LLPA Price Adjustment Changes Sweep Through Investors Tue, Mar 16, 2021 10:30AM Time flies. Ringo is 80!? I bet he’s done some vacationing in the last 60 years. I gave my wife a dart and a poster of a world map and told her, “Throw this and wherever it lands I’m taking you on vacation when this pandemic is over.” Turns out we’re going to be spending two weeks behind the fridge. Will there be demand for summ... (read more) Latest Video Former Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on a potential transaction tax Here's when market insiders expect the Fed to hike rates Higher rates are a bigger risk for parts of the market: Josh Brown Fed's Powell is going to talk yields down: Trader Around the Web CNBC Federal Reserve faces a communications test at its meeting this week as the economy improves Calculated Risk Blog Phoenix Real Estate in February: Sales Up 5% YoY, Active Inventory Down 61% YoY National Associattion of Realtors Millennials Dominate Buying Market, Generation Z Now Active Buyers, Says NAR Report Calculated Risk Blog CAR on California February Housing: Sales up 10% YoY, Active Listings down 53% YoY Reuters U.S. business inventories rise moderately in January as sales surge Calculated Risk Blog NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 82 in March Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 2.2 Percent in February Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Decreased 3.0% in February CNBC 10-year Treasury yield climbs slightly, remains above 1.6% ahead of Fed meeting Reuters Fed officials may talk technical rate move but delay acting for now Calculated Risk Blog Boston Real Estate in February: Sales Up 7% YoY, Inventory Down 13% YoY Reuters U.S. COVID-19 deaths fall 22% last week, daily vaccinations set record Calculated Risk Blog Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe

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