Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021.  10yr yields were close to 1.50% by the end of the day and the next significant ceiling at 1.62% seemed safely overhead.  But only a few hours into the new trading day, 10yr yields surged up to 1.64+, the highest levels in more than year.  Average mortgage rates are close to being able to say the same (highest in 11 months).  Today's rout provides a wake up call as to the nature of the rising rate environment.   Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Core Producer Prices (y/y) 2.5 vs 2.6 f'cast, 2.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:51 AM Much weaker overnight with big hits coming at random times for no apparent reason (speaks to embedded bearish momentum, technicals, and positioning).  10yr up almost 7bps to 1.604%.  UMBS 2.5 coupons down a quarter point. 10:35 AM 10yr has broken the 1.62% ceiling, triggering additional stop-loss selling (up and over 1.63%).  UMBS 2.5s were down nearly half a point at their weakest levels, but have recovered a few ticks in the past few minutes.  Either way, not what we were hoping to see this morning on top of earlier weakness we weren't hoping to see today.  02:48 PM All of today's damage was done by 10:30am and things have been very flat since the last update.  At this point, whatever happens in the last 2 hours of trading doesn't have any major implications for next week.  10yr is up 10bps at 1.63% and 2.5 UMBS are down more than 3/8ths of a point at 103.

March 12, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 12, 2021 Much Less Volatile Week, But Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated Thu, Mar 11, 2021 3:50PM Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for higher interest rates--something that was painfully obvious in February when the average mortgage lender jumped by half a percentage point in conventional 30yr fixed rates. March saw rates move just a bit higher at first, but they've since leveled off --at least for now. The current week hasn't done anything to jeopardize that stability so far, an... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.13 +0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.40 0.00   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend Fri, Mar 12, 2021 3:36PM Sobering Reminder About Rising Rate Trend By yesterday afternoon, the bond market had managed to string together several of the most reassuring days of 2021.  10yr yields were close to 1.50% by the end of the day and the next significant ceiling at 1.62% seemed safely overhead.  But only a few hours into th... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.63 +0.06 UMBS 5.5 101.13 +0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.40 0.00 GNMA 5.0 100.00 -0.08 GNMA 5.5 101.13 -0.08 GNMA 6.0 102.01 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/13 10:44AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.553 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.630 +0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.816 +0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.066 +0.040 30 YR Treasury 4.681 +0.023 Pricing as of: 9/13 10:44AM EST Other News Fannie Warns Lenders on Investment Properties and 2nd Homes Thu, Mar 11, 2021 12:55PM Fannie Mae has sent lenders an advanced notice that additional risk criteria is coming for loans it acquires from lenders. Lender Letter 2021-08 lays out changes mandated by amendments to the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreement (PSPA) between the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the Department of the Treasury in mid-January. The letter focuses... (read more) Forbearances Reach Their Lowest Levels in Almost a Year Fri, Mar 12, 2021 11:15AM Black Knight notes a large improvement in forbearance statistics during the week ended March 9. The number of loans in active plans dropped by 77,000 over the week, the largest single week decline since early January, and lowered the number of plans to 2.6 million, a -2.9 percent change. At the end of the reporting period the remaining loans represent 4.9 pe... (read more) Getting a Mortgage Isn't Getting Any Easier Thu, Mar 11, 2021 12:53PM Access to mortgage credit remained unchanged in February after making modest gains over the previous four months. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Mortgage Credit Access Index, was remained at the January level of 124.6. A lower score indicates a tightening of mortgage credit standards. The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. The MCAI had dr... (read more) Fulfillment, MLO, Product Dev. Jobs; Mail, CRM, Presentation, Digital Products; Freddie and Fannie Shifts Fri, Mar 12, 2021 9:56AM A year ago… remember when you couldn’t find toilet paper for sale? Now you can’t find a house for sale. But there are plenty of Agency MBS and other debt for sale. Just as borrowers are lowering their debt load by refinancing their home loans, corporations and governments are taking advantage of low rates while they’re here. For exam... (read more) Latest Video These are Fed Chair Powell's top challenges Producer price index meets expectations in February Preliminary March Consumer sentiment comes in at 83.0, higher than expected 10-year yield volatility led by inflation fears, stimulus: Defiance ETFs CI... 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