Reasons For Both Hope and Caution Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-day bond rally.  In other words, the auction likely would have been stronger if not for that rally.  On one hand, it's encouraging to continue holding ground without a new, abrupt sell-off so far this week.  On the other hand, we really need to see a stronger commitment to rally before getting too hopeful. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Core CPI (y/y) 1.3 vs 1.4 f'cast, 1.4 prev Market Movement Recap 08:45 AM Weaker overnight, with Treasuries following European yields higher.  Nice little jolt of gains after the weaker CPI data, but that's mostly unwound now.  10yr yields up 2.3bps at 1.55% and 2.5 UMBS down just over an eighth at 103-06 (103.19). 10:35 AM MBS have been mostly flat all morning while Treasuries rallied modestly into the 9:30am NYSE open.  A bit of a weaker bounce since then.  2.5 coupons at lowest liquid levels of the day, down 6 ticks (.19) at 103-05 (103.16).  10yr back up to 1.550% after being as low as 1.533% 01:08 PM Decent 10yr auction.  See the update for more. Intraday gains mostly holding.  10yr down 1bp at 1.52% and UMBS 2.5 within 1 tick of turning green. 03:21 PM Not bad, not stellar.  Rally stalled a bit and 10yr yields backed up to roughly unchanged levels for the 3pm CME close.  MBS just barely weaker on the day.  Pretty uneventful considering the possibilities. 

March 10, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Reasons For Both Hope and Caution Reasons For Both Hope and Caution Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-day bond rally.  In other words, the auction likely would have been stronger if not for that ral... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Modestly Lower, But Hoping For More At this point, no one should be surprised to hear that mortgage rates have moved significantly higher in 2021--especially in the past few weeks. There are several reasons for this, but the easiest way to make sense of it all is to say "rates were ult... (read more) Housing News Rising Rates Hampered Refinance Activity This Week Mortgage application volume turned lower again this week after longer term rates rose again, pulling more steam out of refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, decreased 1.3 percen... (read more) Rob Chrisman DPA, Automation, Sales, AMC, Compliance Products; Broker and Correspondent Tools; Economy Quietly Gearing Up Today I head off on a business trip to Georgia for a few days, which reminded me that yesterday’s commentary had some state facts. As expected, people took exception with Texas and West Virginia’s lake trivia. Today they can take exceptio... (read more) Housing News CoreLogic Calls 2020 a Rocky Year for Loan Performance CoreLogic's December 2020 Loan Performance Insights report was upbeat, citing positive signs of recovery after a rocky year in which a pandemic and related job losses sent delinquency rates skyrocketing. Last year started with the lowest share of loa... (read more) Housing News February Homebuying Sentiment Declines, Despite Stronger Job Market Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) declined slightly in February as did four of its six components. The Index, based on a sample of answers to the company's monthly National Housing Survey, dipped 1.2 points to 76.5. It is down 16 poin... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.82% +0.03% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.35% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% +0.03 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.37% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/11 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.03% +0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.02 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.09 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.33 -0.14 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.33 -0.14 UMBS 6.0 101.23 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 99.66 -0.18 GNMA 6.0 101.31 -0.07 Pricing as of: 7/13 9:03AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4083 +0.0615 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.901 +0.024 5 YR Treasury 3.971 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 4.179 +0.053 10 YR Treasury 4.408 +0.062 30 YR Treasury 4.955 +0.085 Pricing as of: 7/13 9:03AM EST Latest Video Treasury sells $38 billion in 10-year notes House passes Biden's $1.9 trillion covid relief package The 9am Bond Report - March 10, 2021 House expected to pass $1.9 trillion Covid relief package Wednesday Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Colorado Real Estate in February: Sales Up 5% YoY, Inventory Down 64% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Atlanta Real Estate in February: Sales Up 5% YoY, Inventory Down 57% YoY Reuters U.S. Feb. budget deficit hits record $311 billion as COVID-19 costs, revenues rise Reuters Biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill gets enough votes to pass House Calculated Risk Blog Houston Real Estate in February: Sales Up 2% YoY, Inventory Down 38% YoY CNBC Surging yields are creating problems for the ECB. And it's split on what to do Reuters U.S. consumer prices increase solidly in February Redfin Homebuyer Interest in Vacation Towns and Suburbs Has Soared Since the Pandemic Hit the U.S. CNBC Treasury auctions are normally mundane affairs, but Wednesday's could make or break the stock market Fannie Mae Fannie Updates Eligibility For Investment Properties and 2nd Homes Calculated Risk Blog Northwest Real Estate in February: Sales up 10% YoY, Inventory down 44% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Denver Real Estate in February: Sales Up 4% YoY, Active Inventory Down 58% Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Decreased 4.1% YoY in Early March

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