The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs.  The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 trillion spending bill.  Bond yields surged higher as a result.  The second input was the big miss in the jobs report (combined with the big beat in the unemployment rate).  The initial reaction was strongly positive, but it has since reversed course (and then reversed again, and then again one more time).  All of the bond market volatility is playing out in a vacuum that almost completely ignores the stock market.  If you ever wondered whether or not NFP deserves the title of the most consequential economic report for the bond market, days like today make it clear. 

February 5, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Feb 5, 2021 Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Tue, Feb 2, 2021 3:44PM Mortgage Rates were steady to slightly lower yesterday even though prevailing trends in the bond market suggested caution. Today's trading is a different story. Granted, there haven't been any huge, dramatic moves, but today's bond market weakness adds a bit of evidence for a more cautious approach. In general, rates are biding their time in a low, narrow range (just slightly higher than the all-time low range seen at the end of 2020) before making their next big move. That "next move" is to-be-determined. It will take guidance from things like economic data, fiscal stimulus, major covid-relat... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Bipolar NFP = Bipolar Market Reaction Fri, Feb 5, 2021 10:03AM The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs.  The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 trillion spending bill.  Bond yields surged higher as a result.  The second input was the big miss in the jobs report (combined with the big beat in the unemployment rate).  The initial react... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:52PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:52PM EST Other News CFPB's New Seasoning Rule is Already Showing Promise Tue, Feb 2, 2021 11:18AM The Urban Institute (UI) has looked at a final mortgage rule issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in late 2020 which would provide a 3-year pathway to safe harbor for loans that are a rebuttable presumption or nonqualified mortgage at origination. The study, by UI analysts Karan Kaul, Laurie Goodman, and Jun Zhu found that loan performan... (read more) December Home Price Gains Shot Up 9% Annually Wed, Feb 3, 2021 8:16AM CoreLogic reports that December saw yet another acceleration in home price increases. The company's Home Price Index (HPI) rose 9.2 percent on an annual basis. The increase in November was 8.2 percent. The month-over-month change, 1.1 percent, was also greater than the increase from October to November, 1.0 percent. CoreLogic says the December data means the... (read more) Residential Construction Spending Grew by 11.8% in 2020 Tue, Feb 2, 2021 11:06AM Public and privately funded construction spending ended 2020 with a 4.7 percent increase over spending in 2019. The U.S. Census Bureau said the combined outlays for the recent year was $1.430 trillion compared to 1.365 trillion the prior year. Residential spending, which increased significantly on a percentage basis in the public sector although the dollar a... (read more) Lock Desk, Credit, MLO, Ops Jobs; Underwriting, Pricing tools; DACA, URLA Changes; Primer on the Secondary Markets Thu, Feb 4, 2021 10:45AM Making headlines is United Wholesale averaging $15 billion a month in production and earning total net income of $3.4 billion for 2020 , quite a change from the $415 million of net income in 2019. And over time, we change. In your 20s: “I fell asleep backwards on a coffee table last night and woke up just in time to run a 5k.” In your 30s: &ldquo... (read more) Latest Video January jobs numbers were weaker than expected, says Goldman's Hatzius The Bond Report - 9am - February 05, 2021 FDA advisory meeting on J&J emergency approval request set for Feb. 26 U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January vs. 50,000 expected Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog AAR: January Rail Carloads down 2.1% YoY, Intermodal Up 12.1% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Comments on January Employment Report Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit Decreased to $66.6 Billion in December Reuters Biden says jobs data shows need for action on coronavirus relief bill CNBC Here's where the jobs are in one chart CNBC UK in a different place' from the euro zone on negative rates, Bank of England says CNBC U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January vs. 50,000 expected Calculated Risk Blog Goldman January Payrolls Preview Calculated Risk Blog January Employment Preview CNBC Jobs growth likely rebounded in January, but the extent of the recovery depends on hotels and restaurants CNBC Fewer people may qualify for the $1,400 stimulus payments. Here's why Reuters U.S. Senate Democrats set for first step on road to new COVID-19 relief Reuters Wall St rises as focus turns to stimulus, corporate earnings

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