10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds The election (referring both to the presidency and the composition of the Senate) is the biggest of actionable information since the pandemic first rocked markets in March. Yields have been pushed up to their 2nd to last post-covid ceiling at .88% (next stop would be .96%).  Many market participants see this as bonds' way of cautiously pricing-in a blue sweep.  Since that scenario is far from a given, it means a showdown with 0.96% 10yr yields would be a best-case starting point if the blue sweep is confirmed (assuming that the prevailing logic is correct, of course... unlike 2016).  It can be argued both ways.  The argument can only be won with the benefit of hindsight.  It makes more sense to err on the side of caution until then, even though mortgage rates remain extremely well-insulated from broader bond market volatility. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Bonds were weaker overnight with 10yr yields as high as .88% just before 5am ET.  Stock are up over 1% and that's one of the only explanations for bond weakness, apart from bonds simply staging near their highest levels in months for a potential breakout depending on tonight's election results.  MBS are outperforming but still down 3 ticks (0.09) trading just over 103. 11:10 AM Treasuries showing true colors (of fear) heading into election night with 10yr yields up 4.24bps to .8942% (highest since early June's .96%).  MBS are outperforming but 2.0 UMBS are still down an eighth at 103.00.  Stocks are up more than 2%, making today a clearer example of a "risk-on" move. 01:38 PM 2.0 UMBS were briefly up 1 tick (+0.03) but are now down 2 ticks (-0.06) at 103-02 (103.06).  Fed bond buying operations revealed both positive and negative supply considerations that drove the volatility.  10yr yields are up 2.4bps on the day at .876, well off the 11am highs at .8976.  Stocks have cooled off a bit as well, now up only 1.8% versus over 2% earlier.  No overt market movers in play.  Everyone waiting on election night.

November 3, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: 10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds 10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds The election (referring both to the presidency and the composition of the Senate) is the biggest of actionable information sinc... (read more) Housing News Think Tank Concludes Mortgage Guidelines Could Safely be Twice as Risky The Urban Institute's (UI's) Housing Finance Policy Center has updated its credit availability index (HCAI) to reflect data for the second quarter of 2020. The Index shows a slight dip from an adjusted 5.3 percent in the first quarter to 5.2 percent ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Marketing, Production Jobs; Training, Automation, LOS Products; Company Specific Industry Snapshots What are companies doing with the 2020 money they were going to spend on travel and entertainment? Saving it for the second half of 2021? Last week I paid a visit to Southern California. (The airports were uncrowded, masks universal.) I guess that I ... (read more) Housing News Fastest Home Price Gains Since 2004, Inventories Dwindling CoreLogic's estimate of the annual home price appreciation in September is not nearly as high as that published yesterday (over 14 percent) by Black Knight on Monday, but at 6.7 percent, the CoreLogic number is the fastest annual acceleration in thei... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Steady At Recent Lows Ahead of Election Mortgage rates move higher and lower all the time, but truly massive moves tend to arrive with many months (if not years) in between. The trade war in 2019 and the pandemic in 2020 both served to push rates significantly lower, but how about rate spi... (read more) Housing News 2020 Home Loan Volume Expected to Top a Record-Breaking $4 Trillion Black Knight concurs with an earlier forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association, that 2020 will have a higher level of mortgage originations in 2020 than was registered in 2019. Black Knight, in its new Mortgage Monitor covering September loan pe... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.27% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.29% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.09 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.73 +0.08 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.72 +0.08 UMBS 6.0 101.52 +0.08 GNMA 5.5 99.92 +0.07 GNMA 6.0 101.41 +0.07 Pricing as of: 7/7 12:44AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3310 -0.0157 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.857 -0.026 5 YR Treasury 3.910 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 4.101 -0.023 10 YR Treasury 4.328 -0.019 30 YR Treasury 4.856 -0.008 Pricing as of: 7/7 12:44AM EST Latest Video Political betting market PredictIt shows a closer race between Trump and Bi... September factory orders rise 1.1 percent, slightly better than forecasts Refinitiv: U.S.-China trade will be a bipartisan issue, no matter who wins ... October ISM manufacturing index sees best number since August Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Early Q4 GDP Forecasts Calculated Risk Blog Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 23% Year-over-year CNBC Goldman Sachs drops the euro from its list of currencies expected to surge against the dollar Calculated Risk Blog MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 5.83%" Calculated Risk Blog The Election and 2021 Economic Forecast Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 59.3 in October Calculated Risk Blog Construction Spending Increased 0.3% in September Calculated Risk Blog Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC PPP loan borrowers are being steered toward forgiveness. Why they should slow down NAR - Realtor.com Why This Winter's Slow' Home-Selling Season May Be Hotter Than Ever NAR - Realtor.com Dearth of Credit Starves Detroit's Housing Market Calculated Risk Blog Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 51% YoY in September Calculated Risk Blog Q3 2020 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate

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