10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds The election (referring both to the presidency and the composition of the Senate) is the biggest of actionable information since the pandemic first rocked markets in March. Yields have been pushed up to their 2nd to last post-covid ceiling at .88% (next stop would be .96%).  Many market participants see this as bonds' way of cautiously pricing-in a blue sweep.  Since that scenario is far from a given, it means a showdown with 0.96% 10yr yields would be a best-case starting point if the blue sweep is confirmed (assuming that the prevailing logic is correct, of course... unlike 2016).  It can be argued both ways.  The argument can only be won with the benefit of hindsight.  It makes more sense to err on the side of caution until then, even though mortgage rates remain extremely well-insulated from broader bond market volatility. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Bonds were weaker overnight with 10yr yields as high as .88% just before 5am ET.  Stock are up over 1% and that's one of the only explanations for bond weakness, apart from bonds simply staging near their highest levels in months for a potential breakout depending on tonight's election results.  MBS are outperforming but still down 3 ticks (0.09) trading just over 103. 11:10 AM Treasuries showing true colors (of fear) heading into election night with 10yr yields up 4.24bps to .8942% (highest since early June's .96%).  MBS are outperforming but 2.0 UMBS are still down an eighth at 103.00.  Stocks are up more than 2%, making today a clearer example of a "risk-on" move. 01:38 PM 2.0 UMBS were briefly up 1 tick (+0.03) but are now down 2 ticks (-0.06) at 103-02 (103.06).  Fed bond buying operations revealed both positive and negative supply considerations that drove the volatility.  10yr yields are up 2.4bps on the day at .876, well off the 11am highs at .8976.  Stocks have cooled off a bit as well, now up only 1.8% versus over 2% earlier.  No overt market movers in play.  Everyone waiting on election night.

November 3, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 3, 2020 Mortgage Rates Steady At Recent Lows Ahead of Election Mon, Nov 2, 2020 3:23PM Mortgage rates move higher and lower all the time, but truly massive moves tend to arrive with many months (if not years) in between. The trade war in 2019 and the pandemic in 2020 both served to push rates significantly lower, but how about rate spikes? If we're talking about the really big stuff, there are only 4 obvious candidates in the past 20 years. Two of these had more to do with volatility following the financial crisis in 2009 and 2010. The two more recent rate spikes occurred in 2013 after the Fed signaled a shift in its bond buying plans and in Nov 2016 after the presidential elect... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.00% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.15 -0.13   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.46 -0.08   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.042   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: 10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds Tue, Nov 3, 2020 3:43PM 10yr Yields at 0.96% a Best-Case Starting Point For a Bad Reaction in Bonds The election (referring both to the presidency and the composition of the Senate) is the biggest of actionable information since the pandemic first rocked markets in March. Yields have been pushed up to their 2nd to last post-covid ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.52 -0.25 UMBS 5.5 101.15 -0.13 UMBS 6.0 102.46 -0.08 GNMA 5.0 99.87 -0.20 GNMA 5.5 101.11 -0.08 GNMA 6.0 102.09 -0.10 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:03PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.537 +0.049 5 YR Treasury 3.605 +0.043 7 YR Treasury 3.809 +0.040 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.042 30 YR Treasury 4.732 +0.041 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:03PM EST Other News Think Tank Concludes Mortgage Guidelines Could Safely be Twice as Risky Tue, Nov 3, 2020 10:49AM The Urban Institute's (UI's) Housing Finance Policy Center has updated its credit availability index (HCAI) to reflect data for the second quarter of 2020. The Index shows a slight dip from an adjusted 5.3 percent in the first quarter to 5.2 percent in the second quarter. Tightening in the GSE and government channels has driven a retraction of credit availab... (read more) Fastest Home Price Gains Since 2004, Inventories Dwindling Tue, Nov 3, 2020 10:27AM CoreLogic's estimate of the annual home price appreciation in September is not nearly as high as that published yesterday (over 14 percent) by Black Knight on Monday, but at 6.7 percent, the CoreLogic number is the fastest annual acceleration in their records since May 2014. The company puts the increase in its Home Price Index (HPI) at from August to Septem... (read more) 2020 Home Loan Volume Expected to Top a Record-Breaking $4 Trillion Mon, Nov 2, 2020 1:47PM Black Knight concurs with an earlier forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association, that 2020 will have a higher level of mortgage originations in 2020 than was registered in 2019. Black Knight, in its new Mortgage Monitor covering September loan performance data, said its interpretation of recent rate lock information suggests that, for the first time ever... (read more) Marketing, Production Jobs; Training, Automation, LOS Products; Company Specific Industry Snapshots Tue, Nov 3, 2020 10:22AM What are companies doing with the 2020 money they were going to spend on travel and entertainment? Saving it for the second half of 2021? Last week I paid a visit to Southern California. (The airports were uncrowded, masks universal.) I guess that I look pretty sketchy because I’ve lost track of the number of times over the years a drug detecting dog i... (read more) Latest Video Political betting market PredictIt shows a closer race between Trump and Bi... September factory orders rise 1.1 percent, slightly better than forecasts Refinitiv: U.S.-China trade will be a bipartisan issue, no matter who wins ... 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