Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries? Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October.  At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move.  MBS have been outperforming decisively during this time.  That makes it easier for lenders to avoid raising rates nearly as quickly as the broader bond market suggests.  But spreads are now at all-time "tights" (maximum MBS outperformance) thus increasing the risk that negative momentum in Treasuries will increasingly translate to MBS. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Markit PMI Composite 55.5 vs 54.3 prev Markit Manufacturing PMI 53.3 vs 53.4 f'cast Markit Services PMI 56.0 vs 54.6 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:24 AM Bonds were modestly stronger during Asian market hours, with little by way of discernible reaction to the presidential debate.  Decent econ data in Europe pushed back in the other direction, but not enough for 10yr yields to be any higher versus yesterday's highs.  We're currently unchanged at .865 and 1 tick (0.03) stronger in 2.0 UMBS. 10:54 AM Both stock prices and bond yields fell immediately following the NYSE open. Stocks are now unchanged (S&P futures vs 5pm y'day) and 10yr yields are down more than 1bp. They were down 2 bps a few moments ago, but they bounced at their overnight lows of .84% (more on the significance in this update).  2.0 UMBS are up 1 tick (0.03) at 102-29 (102.91). 03:45 PM Bonds improved heading into the PM hours as stocks sank.  Lots of correlation today.  Stocks bounced at 1pm, but bonds managed to hold steady at stronger levels. 

October 23, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 23, 2020 Today is October 22nd, 2020, and Mortgage Rates Are Not at All-Time Lows Thu, Oct 22, 2020 4:56PM Thursdays are special days for mortgage rate aficionados--or they can be anyway. That's when the weekly mortgage rate survey from Freddie Mac is released. The survey is a mainstay of the mortgage industry and the news media. It's been around the longest and is really the only mortgage rate benchmark the industry has. That's TERRIFYING considering how hopelessly inaccurate it can be at times. In Freddie's defense, they are upfront about their methodology, which is the biggest part of the problem . They send the survey out on Monday and then accept responses until Wednesday. Based on my research... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.00% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.06 -0.22   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.36 -0.18   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.082 +0.043   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries? Fri, Oct 23, 2020 3:49PM Have MBS Finally Reached The Limits of Outperformance vs Treasuries? Bonds are in the throws of an extended negative momentum move that's been in place throughout October.  At times, stimulus-related headlines have accounted for volatility during this move.  MBS have been outperforming decisively during thi... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.45 -0.32 UMBS 5.5 101.06 -0.22 UMBS 6.0 102.38 -0.16 GNMA 5.0 99.76 -0.32 GNMA 5.5 101.03 -0.16 GNMA 6.0 102.01 -0.18 Pricing as of: 9/9 5:53PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.557 +0.070 5 YR Treasury 3.615 +0.054 7 YR Treasury 3.814 +0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.085 +0.046 30 YR Treasury 4.731 +0.041 Pricing as of: 9/9 5:53PM EST Other News Homeowner Profits Soared in Q3 Fri, Oct 23, 2020 10:46AM The contribution made to household wealth by homeownership is underlined in ATTOM Data Solutions' third-quarter U.S. Home Sales Report . The company said that a typical homeowner who sold a home during the quarter had a gain of $85,000 . This was $10,000 more than that realized by sellers in the previous quarter and up from $66,000 in the third quarter of 20... (read more) Loans in Forbearance Drop Below 3 Million Fri, Oct 23, 2020 10:34AM The number of FHA and VA loans in forbearance rose slightly last week, however, the overall numbers of forborne loans fell nationally by 11,000. Black Knight's weekly survey of the COVID-19 mortgage forbearance measures found that, as of October 20, there were 2.98 million borrowers in active plans, 5.6 percent of the nation's 53 million active loans. About ... (read more) Vacation Homes Help Fuel Existing Sales Surge Thu, Oct 22, 2020 11:41AM Existing home sales rose again in September and are now blowing the doors off last year's numbers. The National Association of Realtors® says sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, rose 9.4 percent from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in September. After four straight months of increasing sale... (read more) MLO, Sales Jobs; Marketing, Hedging Products; Deep Dive on Rates and MBA Forecast Fri, Oct 23, 2020 9:49AM Let me state for the record that I am not a robot, although I often seem to be asked to check a box on certain websites by… robots. This article , however, sure grabbed my attention, as it was supposedly written by a robot that learned to read from the internet . Does anyone see the madness in this besides science fiction writers from the 1950s? What ... (read more) Latest Video U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI rises to 53.3 in October Covid-19 mortgage bailouts are down 11,000 on a weekly basis Covid-19 mortgage bailouts drop 11,000 for the week People are buying vacation homes, then taking a permanent vacation: Redfin ... Around the Web CNBC There's a big week ahead for the market with an earnings deluge, GDP data and stimulus negotiations Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Forecasts Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: "October Apartment Market Conditions Showed Some Rebound from COVID-19 Impacts" CNBC Long-term unemployment spikes for millions of Americans. Aid that's kept them afloat may end soon NAHB Eye on Housing 77% of Remodelers Report A Framing Lumber Shortage CNBC As stimulus talks drag on in Washington, millions of small busineses await guidance on PPP loan forgiveness twitter.com National home prices have increased at almost 3x the rate of wages since 2012 CNBC 10-year Treasury yield at four-month high on stimulus hopes Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in September NPR Housing Boom: Sales of Million-Dollar Homes Double Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Households Paying Rent Declined in October Calculated Risk Blog Comments on September Existing Home Sales CNBC Hamptons real estate prices break records as New York City wealthy flee to the beach

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