Too Soon To Hope For Support? This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market.  Trump's comments on stimulus have been a key source of volatility although the Treasury auction process proved to be a relevant consideration mid-week. Bonds managed to hold under the important 0.79% ceiling despite additional upbeat Trump comments on stimulus and a lackluster 30yr bond auction.  That's a good sign, but it could also simply reflect traders closing short positions ahead of a 3 day weekend.  Bottom line: it's not too soon to HOPE for support in the bond market, but perhaps a bit too soon to count on it. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 840k vs 820k f'cast , 849k prev Market Movement Recap 08:28 AM Bonds continued to build on the technical support seen at .79% in the overnight session, ultimately making it as low as .765% in 10yr yields.  We're about a bp higher at 8:30am, but not trending higher at the moment.  MBS are perfectly unchanged. 01:09 PM 30yr auction was a bit soft and bonds weakened slightly in response.  10yr yields still down just over 1bp at .772 and 2.0 UMBS are down 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-08 (103.25). 03:08 PM MBS briefly hit their lows of the day just after 2pm--the same time of day as yesterday's acceleration in weakness.  Could be there are a few traders making adjustments to MBS holdings or originators dumping supply after the prepayment speed report 2 days ago.  Small potatoes in the big picture though.  Treasuries remain just over 1bp lower on the day (in yield).  2.0 UMBS are an eighth lower (in price).

October 8, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 8, 2020 Mortgage Rates Generally Unchanged, Which is Great News All Things Considered Wed, Oct 7, 2020 4:42PM This morning's weekly survey data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed a nice increase in refinance applications offset by a smaller decrease in purchase applications. It also showed mortgage rates falling to a new all-time low last week. Don't worry, rates didn't really hit an all-time low last week, nor are they at an all-time low today. Are they close? Perhaps for purchase mortgages at certain lenders, but even then, early August was unequivocally better. Apples to apples (same lender, same loan type), rates were anywhere from .125-.375% lower 2 months ago. Why am I telling you some... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 +0.13   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.53 +0.05   99.66 102.53 10 YR Treasury 4.048 -0.039   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Too Soon To Hope For Support? Thu, Oct 8, 2020 3:51PM Too Soon To Hope For Support? This week began with a decisive breakout to higher yields in the bond market.  Trump's comments on stimulus have been a key source of volatility although the Treasury auction process proved to be a relevant consideration mid-week. Bonds managed to hold under the important 0.79% ceil... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.75 +0.28 UMBS 5.5 101.25 +0.13 UMBS 6.0 102.53 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.05 +0.22 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.13 -0.01 Pricing as of: 9/8 4:38PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.494 -0.024 5 YR Treasury 3.567 -0.022 7 YR Treasury 3.772 -0.029 10 YR Treasury 4.043 -0.044 30 YR Treasury 4.687 -0.082 Pricing as of: 9/8 4:38PM EST Other News Almost 400,000 Delinquent Homeowners Have Better Options Tue, Oct 6, 2020 11:24AM The Urban Institute (UI) estimates that there are about 400,000 homeowners who have become "needlessly delinquent" as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. UI analysts Michael Neal and Linda Goodman credit the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act with providing "a much-needed lifeline" during the crisis, but conclude that there needs to be... (read more) Refi Application Volume Recovers From Last Week's Loss Wed, Oct 7, 2020 8:41AM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the volume of purchase mortgage applications declined for a second week but refinancing more than recovered from last week's 7 percent loss. MBA's Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended October 2 and was 5 per... (read more) July's Home Prices Increase by 5.5%, Breaking a Two-Year Record Tue, Oct 6, 2020 10:22AM Entry-level priced homes, which continue to be in short supply, are, helping to drive strong price gains. CoreLogic says home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.5 percent in July 2020 and were up 1.2 percent compared to the previous month. The annual increase was the fastest in nearly two years. The company said the ... (read more) Ops Mgr., MLO Jobs; Capital Markets Products; Retention, Direct Mail, VOE Tools Thu, Oct 8, 2020 9:01AM Illinois, Alaska, and California. This morning’s drama revolves around the next presidential debate (virtual or not) but folklore tells us that it was on this date in 1871 Mrs. O’Leary’s cow knocked over a lantern and thus started The Great Chicago Fire (3 square miles destroyed, 100,000 homeless, 200 died; for comparison, California, home ... (read more) Latest Video J.P. Morgan analyst says there's more room to run for homebuilders, adds Pu... The 9a.m. Bond Report: October 8, 2020 U.S. weekly jobless claims total 840,000, vs 825,000 estimate Former Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein on monetary policy and the debt Around the Web CNBC Red hot home prices have more consumers saying now is a bad time to buy Calculated Risk Blog Seattle Real Estate in September: Sales up 59% YoY, Inventory UP 8% YoY NAHB Eye on Housing Consumer Credit Decreases in August Calculated Risk Blog AAR: September Rail Carloads down 9.7% YoY, Intermodal Up 7.1% YoY CNBC Years of low interest rates made the current economic crisis worse, Fed's Rosengren says CNBC Empty rental apartments in Manhattan triple, nearly hitting 16,000 CNBC Lloyd Blankfein sees `bubble elements' in markets thanks to 'free' money CNBC Empty rental apartments in Manhattan triple, nearly hitting 16,000 CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 840,000, vs 825,000 estimate CNBC European markets head for higher open as investors keep an eye on U.S. stimulus talks CNBC As stimulus talks falter, the U.S. economy faces growth coming to a halt NAR - Realtor.com As Trump Says He's Abandoned Stimulus Talks, Renters and Landlords Face a Financial Cliff CNBC Fed releases minutes from meeting where it held rates steady and outlined inflation strategy

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