More Defensive But Not Without Hope 2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market.  Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed.  With another slate of Treasury supply kicking off on Tuesday, we're on the lookout for last week's linear, positive trend to face some resistance.  If we don't see any, it would speak volumes to market's comfort level in a narrow range near all-time lows. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:29 AM Initially flat overnight before following European yields higher at 3am.  Bonds calmed down a bit heading into domestic hours, but both Treasuries and MBS are slightly weaker now.  Stocks are up almost a percent to new record highs (S&P futures).   10:23 AM Bonds turned more decisively positive (if anything can be decisive in such a narrow overall range) after the 9:30am NYSE Open.  The timing and the correlation with slumping stocks made a clear case for a quick little rotation out of stocks and into bonds.  Both are bouncing back in the other direction now, but 10yr yields are still nearly a bp lower on the day and UMBS 2.0s are up nearly an eighth. 11:53 AM Fed buying operation saw big supply (11:30-11:50am) and MBS are falling back to the AM lows in its wake.  2.0 UMBS now down 2 ticks (0.06) on the day and more than an eighth from the highs.  Treasury selling isn't helping.

August 24, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: More Defensive But Not Without Hope More Defensive But Not Without Hope 2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market.  Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed.  With a... (read more) Rob Chrisman Finance, AE, Ops, LO Jobs; Customer Service, Income Tools; Agency Updates Winter is coming. I don’t need a new coat to walk from my bedroom through the kitchen and into the dining room to work on this commentary. Who is buying neckties or new dress shoes, or spending money renting cars, going to a theater, or having ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Best Housing Market Since 2007, But There's a Catch Several new reports confirm the housing market is soaring right now, but the headlines don't tell the whole story. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported July's existing home sales came in at an annual pace of 5.86 million hom... (read more) Housing News Late-Stage Delinquencies are Surging, Especially Those With FHA Loans Like the report from Black Knight earlier today, the second quarter National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic fading a bit in early delinquency numbers but surging within the more ser... (read more) Housing News Existing Home Sales are Booming Existing-home sales posted a second month of significant sales gains in July, building on a record 20.7 percent increase in June. The National Association of Realtors ® (NAR) said sales were at a seasonally adjusted 5.86 million units, a 24.7 per... (read more) Housing News Forbearances are Leveling Out, With Long-Term Delinquencies now a Concern The financial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are beginning to emerge and while it appears the crisis initially hit homeowners hard, the duration of the problem is murky. Short term delinquencies are declining, with fewer homeowners entering forbear... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.27% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.29% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.09 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.64 -0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.64 -0.20 UMBS 6.0 101.43 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.86 -0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.34 -0.06 Pricing as of: 7/6 3:28AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3467 +0.0669 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.883 +0.095 5 YR Treasury 3.937 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 4.125 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.347 +0.067 30 YR Treasury 4.863 +0.055 Pricing as of: 7/6 3:28AM EST Latest Video Why economists are increasingly worried about a second recession Insurers are preparing for payouts as twin storms make landfall Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index comes in at 53.6 Existing home sales up 8.7% versus a year ago Around the Web CNBC More than half of states are now approved for the extra $300 per week in unemployment insurance CNBC Federal student loan payments have been deferred through December CNBC Small landlords dip into savings as their tenants struggle to pay rent CNBC Small landlords dip into savings as their tenants struggle to pay rent Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: Rent Payment Tracker Shows Decline in Households Paying Rent Calculated Risk Blog Chicago Fed National Activity "Index Suggests Slower, but Still Well-Above-Average Growth in July" NAHB Eye on Housing New York Led with Employment Gains in July Calculated Risk Blog Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Economists see a chance of a double-dip recession, survey shows NAR - Realtor.com Home Prices Are Still Shooting Up, but Is This a Bubble About To Burst? Calculated Risk Blog BLS: July Unemployment rates down in 30 states; 3 States at New Series Highs NAR - Realtor.com Existing-Home Sales Soar at a Record Pace in July as Americans Make Up for Lost Timebut Two Big Caveats Remain CNBC That extra $300 weekly unemployment benefits: Where states stand

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