A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News For rates and the bond market, the news has been almost exclusively good for weeks-to-months.  Most recently, we've seen lower lows than ever and spent more time remaining in that range than any past trip to all-time lows.  In other words, we would typically expect a bounce by now.  Interestingly enough, there is a very small hint at such a bounce emerging.  While it's too soon to worry about it, it's not too soon to keep an eye on it. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Existing Home Sales 4.72m vs 4.78m f'cast , 3.91 prev Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM Socks and bonds yields were both slightly lower overnight.  The biggest move followed news about the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston (yes, really).  10yr yields are down 1.9bps at .586 and 2.0 UMBS  are up 2 ticks (0.06). 10:44 AM No detectable reaction to home sales data.  Bonds remain roughly unchanged-to-slightly-stronger.  10yr yields may be seeing some resistance at the range floor of .58%. 01:25 PM 2.0 UMBS are now up an eighth of a point on the day at 103-01 (103.03). 10yr yields are down 1.6bps at .589 and as yet unwilling to break below the .58% range boundary.  MBS outperformance followed the Fed's last bond buying operation of the day. 03:22 PM There was a fairly quick bout of selling just after 2pm, but it has since been corrected.  It was more noticeable in MBS than Treasuries. Both lost a bit of ground but remain modestly stronger on the day.

July 22, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 22, 2020 Mortgage Rates Are Still Amazing, But Improving at a Slower Pace Now Tue, Jul 21, 2020 4:25PM Mortgage rates have been holding a very narrow range since July 9th. They also hit new all-time lows on July 9th. A few of the days since then have been slightly better and--less frequently--slightly worse, but any one of them is noticeably better than anything before July 9th. This is the new reality of the mortgage market after coronavirus. It will continue to be the reality until it's not anymore, and the deciding factor there will likely be progress against the pandemic. There are other considerations as well. Chief among these is the correlation between mortgage rates and the broader bond... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News Wed, Jul 22, 2020 3:27PM A Small Risk in a Pile of Good News For rates and the bond market, the news has been almost exclusively good for weeks-to-months.  Most recently, we've seen lower lows than ever and spent more time remaining in that range than any past trip to all-time lows.  In other words, we would typically expect a... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:14PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:14PM EST Other News Existing Home Sales Roared Back in June, Ending 3-Month Drought Wed, Jul 22, 2020 11:35AM Existing home sales ended a three-month string of losses arising out of the COVID-19 pandemic with a flourish, soaring by 20.7 percent from May to June. Sales rose from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units in May to 4.72 million units . The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiu... (read more) Mortgage Apps Continue Gains, Forbearance Totals Drop Below 4 Million Wed, Jul 22, 2020 8:17AM Even with some interest rates ticking higher, both purchase and refinance activity increased last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 4.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and was up 4.0 percent unadjusted. It was the third consecutiv... (read more) Home Prices Fell Slightly in May Wed, Jul 22, 2020 10:42AM House prices fell in May, although they remain well ahead of prices a year earlier. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said its House Price Index (HPI) dropped by 0.3 percent from its April levels. Prices were down or unchanged in eight of the nine census divisions and the 0.2 percent increase reported for April was revised down to 0.1 percent. Prices... (read more) eClosing, Broker, Servicing Products; USDA Rural Tidbits; Forbearance Stats Improving Tue, Jul 21, 2020 10:22AM Originators, as Deb from Virginia reminded me, are currently like ducks: cool and calm on the surface, paddling frantically underneath. Originators like low rates, but not if their clients can’t qualify for a loan. Furloughs are becoming permanent for many companies. U.S. equity indexes might be trading substantially up on recent low points, mostly due... (read more) Latest Video GOP mulling unemployment boost of $400 per month through Dec. 31, sources t... Rise in home sales may be the result of pent-up demand: UBS's U.S. housing ... Dow rises slightly on positive vaccine news—Four experts on what it means f... Existing home sales jump 20.7% in June, largest one-month jump ever Around the Web CNBC Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on US economic outlook: `We're in for a very bumpy ride' Calculated Risk Blog AIA: "Architecture billings remain in negative territory, begin to stabilize" Calculated Risk Blog Comments on June Existing Home Sales CNBC Former Fed Vice Chair Blinder says cutting government aid would be a 'catastrophic mistake' Calculated Risk Blog Census: Household Pulse Survey shows 26.4% Missed or Expect to Miss Rent or Mortgage Payment CNBC Existing home sales surge nearly 21% in June the highest monthly gain on record NAHB Eye on Housing Affordable Housing Credit Beneficiaries: 2020 Update CNBC Buying your first home may cost more than you think. Here's what to expect Reuters U.S. orders China to shut Houston consulate in move China calls 'unprecedented escalation' Calculated Risk Blog New York City Subway Usage CNBC Key Senate committee approves Shelton, Waller for Fed positions CNBC Employment recovery going backward in states hit hard by virus, small business data shows NPR Record Low Mortgage Rates Put More Cash In Pockets, But May Not Boost Economy Much

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