How Low Can Rates Eventually Go? Until further notice, we can expect to see the bond market drift in a fairly consistent range, making modest course course corrections depending on the covid outlook. We can also dig into the nuts and bolts of the mortgage bond market to ask and answer questions about how low rates can eventually go. The answer is actually surprisingly simple. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Bonds opened the overnight session slightly stronger.  Stocks were slightly weaker.  No major movement since then, but a slightly stronger bias in bonds in early domestic trading. 11:43 AM Yields found bottom right in line with Friday's lows (.60%) and have been moving higher since roughly 9am.  2.0 UMBS bounced at their Friday highs shortly thereafter and are down about 2 ticks (0.06) since then. 01:20 PM MBS and Treasuries both just turned negative on the day, but not for any particular reason.  The only suspect at the scene of the crime was simply the close of the European bond market (it's not uncommon to see tradeflows shift after a major market closes/opens for the day). 02:52 PM After a bit more weakness, both Treasuries and MBS found support.  Both are near unchanged despite ongoing strength in stocks.

July 20, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 20, 2020 Is It Already Time To Refinance Again? Fri, Jul 17, 2020 4:46PM Markets continue to focus on coronavirus numbers first and foremost. When the news is good , we tend to see stocks and rates move higher. When the news is bad , rates tend to fall and stocks struggle to improve. The movement is usually more pronounced for stocks. When it comes to rates, however--especially mortgage rates--recent volatility is taking place at a microscopic level compared to recent months. This could continue to be the case until we get a much clearer sense of how the pandemic will likely evolve in the context of our attempts to reopen the domestic economy. Until that happens, o... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: How Low Can Rates Eventually Go? Mon, Jul 20, 2020 2:57PM How Low Can Rates Eventually Go? Until further notice, we can expect to see the bond market drift in a fairly consistent range, making modest course course corrections depending on the covid outlook. We can also dig into the nuts and bolts of the mortgage bond market to ask and answer questions about how low rates ca... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:40PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:40PM EST Other News Construction Continues Post-Plunge Gains Fri, Jul 17, 2020 11:50AM All three measures in the Census Bureaus June residential construction report moved higher , as the building industry continued to recover from its April collapse. However, of the three, only the rate of units completed was higher than its June 2019 level. Permits increased by 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,241,000 units from 1,216,000... (read more) Average FICO Scores Rise 9 Points Since March Fri, Jul 17, 2020 8:52AM The interest rates on mortgage loans that closed in June averaged 3.40 percent, down 3 basis points from the average in May according to Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report. The rate for 30-year conventional loans was 3.42 percent compared to 3.44 percent the previous month and there were declines of 4 basis points for both FHA and VA loans to 3.41 percen... (read more) Forbearance Plan Numbers at Lowest Levels Since May Fri, Jul 17, 2020 8:37AM There was another decline in forbearance starts this past week and the number of loans in active plans also fell for the third straight week. Black Knight's weekly report on COVID-19 related forbearances reported a total of 4.12 million loans that have been granted forbearance, allowing borrowers to omit or reduce mortgage payments due to financial impacts r... (read more) Marketing, Risk, Data Retrieval Tools; Wholesaler News; Rates: Steady as she Goes Mon, Jul 20, 2020 9:19AM After the shaman finished my taxes last week over the phone, we struck up a conversation about working from home, pros and cons, since it appears that most will be doing this for the remainder of 2020, if not beyond. (But work from home Monday through Friday, then get together with your twenty closest pals for a Saturday afternoon backyard BBQ?!) Lenders, an... (read more) Latest Video Housing sees tightened lending restrictions: Brown Harris Stevens CEO Trump: Stimulus discussions are going well Florida surpasses 10,000 Covid-19 cases for fifth consecutive day Oxford: Millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses by year's end Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Surged in June CNBC Bernanke and Yellen say the Fed needs to find out why the market broke down in March CNBC With millions of Americans out of work, relief measures in the CARES Act are coming to an end Calculated Risk Blog Sacramento Housing in June: Sales decline 1% YoY, Active Inventory down 37% YoY CNBC Mark Cuban: 'Everybody is a genius in a bull market.' CNBC Congress returns with only days to pass new coronavirus relief as pandemic rages Calculated Risk Blog Comments on BLS Reference Week NAHB Eye on Housing California Led with Employment Gains in June Calculated Risk Blog Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC Hands off that retirement money until you scout through all the options Calculated Risk Blog Existing Home Sales: Lawler vs. the Consensus CNBC Here's what happened to the stock market on Friday CNBC Without big Wall Street trading arms, regional banks lean on mortgages and fees to beat earnings

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