Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation and for the gap between job growth and forecasts.  While today's job count was even bigger (+4.8 million versus 2.699m last month), it wasn't as far above the forecast consensus (1.8m gap versus 10.5m last month).  But even that doesn't fully explain why bonds were able to get back to stronger levels a few hours later. Waiting on covid news! Econ Data / Events 11:30-11:50 AM (ET) -  Fed 30yr UMBS Buying    Nonfarm Payrolls  4.8m vs 3.0m f'cast,  2.699m prev Unemployment rate 11.1 vs 12.3 f'cast , 13.3 prev Jobless Claims 1.427m vs 1.355m f'cast , 1.482m prev Market Movement Recap 08:18 AM Bonds broadly unchanged overnight despite mild-mannered rally in stocks.  10yr yields starting the day up 0.3bps at .679 and UMBS 2.0 coupons are up 1 tick (0.03) at 102-10 (102.31) 10:25 AM Most of the losses in Treasuries have been erased with 10s back down to .686 (up 1bp on the day). MBS are still outperforming and are currently at the highs of the day up 3 ticks (.09) at 102-12 (102.375).

July 2, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 2, 2020 Rates at All-Time Lows Ahead of Important Jobs Data Wed, Jul 1, 2020 4:48PM Mortgage rates were generally unchanged today, thus leaving the average lender at all-time lows for conventional 30yr fixed scenarios. It continues to be the case that loan scenarios with additional risk factors have NOT seen nearly as much improvement as those in the top tier. In general, however, things are starting to improve. When coronavirus rocked the financial markets in March, mortgage rates were particularly hard hit. This had a lot to do with the anticipated inability of millions of homeowners to make their mortgage payments. While the government and the mortgage industry rushed to p... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.00% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.15 -0.13   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.46 -0.08   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.081 +0.042   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve Thu, Jul 2, 2020 3:26PM Record-Breaking Job Gains, But Bonds Ultimately Improve Last month's jobs report shattered records, both for the outright level of job creation and for the gap between job growth and forecasts.  While today's job count was even bigger (+4.8 million versus 2.699m last month), it wasn't as far above... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.54 -0.23 UMBS 5.5 101.13 -0.15 UMBS 6.0 102.42 -0.12 GNMA 5.0 99.86 -0.22 GNMA 5.5 101.12 -0.07 GNMA 6.0 102.03 -0.15 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:16PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.543 +0.056 5 YR Treasury 3.610 +0.048 7 YR Treasury 3.815 +0.047 10 YR Treasury 4.087 +0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.735 +0.044 Pricing as of: 9/9 12:16PM EST Other News Purchase Apps Retreat Again as Inventory Dries Up Wed, Jul 1, 2020 8:16AM Applications for both refinancing and purchase mortgages retreated last week , pulling the Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA's) Market Composite Index lower for the second time in as many weeks. MBA said the index, a measure of application volume, declined by 1.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended June 26 and was down 2.0 percent o... (read more) Home Prices "Remarkably Stable" in April Tue, Jun 30, 2020 10:12AM Home prices continued to hold up on a national basis in April. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.7 percent annual gain in April, up from 4.6 percent in March. The National Index posted a 1.1 percent month-over-month increase before seasonal adjustment and an 0.5 percent ga... (read more) Supreme Court Rules Single CFPB Director Unconstitutional Mon, Jun 29, 2020 1:38PM The Supreme Court, in a 5-4 decision along partisan lines, took a chunk out of the intentions the Dodd-Frank Act had for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) when it created it. The court ruled that the single-director structure of the agency is unconstitutional as is its limits on the President's ability to replace its occupant. When Congress est... (read more) Anti-fraud, DPA, HMDA Products; Non-QM News in Primary and Secondary Markets Thu, Jul 2, 2020 8:59AM Lenders continue to count the piles of doubloons they booked during another record-breaking month; will July be another? M&A deals are still simmering out there, but when profits are “en fuego” and July is looking strong with full pipelines, it can be tough for a fortunate owner to sell. Think of all of those unfortunate folks who bought fanc... (read more) Latest Video Four experts break down the blowout June jobs report U.S. economy adds 4.8 million jobs in June, vs expected increase of 2.9 mil... Fed's Bullard warns of financial crisis risks Some unintentional consequences with Fed holding rates artificially low: An... Around the Web Brookings Institution Class Notes: Economic Activity Amid COVID-19, Homeownership and Wealth, and More CNBC U.S. coronavirus cases soar by more than 50,600 in record single-day jump Calculated Risk Blog Comments on June Employment Report Calculated Risk Blog BEA: June Vehicles Sales increased to 13.0 Million SAAR Redfin Luxury Home Prices Dropped 2.3% This Spring, Reversing Course From Pre-Pandemic Growth CNBC Manhattan apartment sales worst on record, biggest plunge in 30 years CNBC US jobs increase by 4.8 million in June, vs 2.9 million estimate; unemployment rate at 11.1% NAR - Realtor.com This New Credit Score Could Help More Home Buyers Receive Mortgages CNBC House passes extension of coronavirus small business loan deadline CNBC Jobs data for June could show strong rehiring ahead of the latest virus wave Calculated Risk Blog June Employment Preview NAHB Eye on Housing Correlation Between Low Housing Supply and Purchase Loan Size CNBC Federal Reserve releases minutes for June meeting

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