This week will begin with a number of Federal Reserve speakers and see the release of housing data in both Canada and the U.S. on Wednesday. The relatively quiet week will culminate on Friday with Canada's employment report for June, which is expected to be a key market focus.
Whereas June's change in employment is anticipated to increase by 10k, following a previous increase of 8.4k, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 6.1%.
Economists from Scotia Capital, however, are calling for an increase in the unemployment rate as well. "The impression that Canada's labour market is holding up better than in the U.S. is generally true. As markets look forward to next Friday's Canadian jobs report for June, however, it would be a mistake to ignore emerging pitfalls," they wrote in a research note to clients.
"Canada's buoyant housing market will continue to support construction employment, while public sector employment is expected to gain once again. Nonetheless, this will likely only lead to a gain of around 5,000 workers. As a result, we are expecting the unemployment rate to move up slightly to 6.2% in June."
In the U.S., meanwhile, June's University of Michigan consumer sentiment index is scheduled to be released. Economists are forecasting a preliminary reading of 55.5, down from May's 56.4.
"There is little reason to suspect that confidence improved in July," wrote Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth. "The tax rebates have already been delivered and, otherwise, gasoline prices have continued to rise while labour market conditions deteriorated further. Once those rebates are spent, things could get even grimmer."
Furthermore, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to speak twice during the week ahead. On Tuesday, he will speak at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on the subject of "Mortgage Lending for Low- and Moderate Income Households". On Thursday, along with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, he will testify at a House Financial Services Committee on a variety of topics, including financial regulation.
All times in EDT.
Saturday: U.S. Treasury Under Secretary for Domestic Finance Robert Steel and Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David McCormick are to speak at the Aspen Ideas Festival.
12:30 US Treasury's Steel, McCormick Speak at Aspen Institute Meeting
Sunday: There are no macroeconomic data releases or events scheduled in Canada or the U.S.
Monday: San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak at an economics roundtable, on the subject of the U.S., at an event hosted by the University of California-San Diego. In Canada, building Permits are set to decrease 5.8% month-over-month in May following a previous 14.5% rise. Markets will also receive the Canadian second-quarter business outlook survey, which last came in at a reading of -1.96.
8:30 CA Building Permits (M/M) May Exp: -5.8% Prior: +14.5%
10:30 CA Business Outlook Future Sales Q2 Prior: -1.96
11:00 US Fed's Yellen Speaks in San Diego on U.S. Economic Outlook
13:00 US Tsy to Sell USD24B 3-Month Bills
13:00 US Tsy to Sell USD23B 6-Month Bills
Tuesday: A couple of high-profile speakers take centre stage on Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is set to speak in Arlington, Virginia at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's Mortgage Lending for Low- and Moderate Income Households forum. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker will speak to the National Economists Club in Washington D.C. on the U.S. economic outlook. In terms of data, U.S. pending home sales for May is expected to show a 2.5% decrease, down from a previous 6.3% increase.
8:00 US Bernanke Speaks at FDIC Forum on Financial Regulation
10:00 US Pending Home Sales (M/M) May Exp:-2.5% Prior: +6.3%
10:00 US Wholesale Inventories May Exp: +0.7% Prior: +1.3%
12:30 US Richmond Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economic Outlook in Washington
13:00 US Tsy to Sell 4-Week Bills
15:00 US Consumer Credit May Exp: +$7.5B Prior: +$8.9B
15:00 US Paulson Speaks at FDIC in Virginia on Mortgage Lending
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence W/E 6-July Prior: -43
8-July US DOE Short-Term Crude Outlook July Prior: +126K
8-July US DOE Short-Term Ht Oil Outlook July Prior: +4.25K
9-July US DOE Short-Term Diesel Outlook July Prior: +4.32K
8-July US DOE Short-Term Mogas Outlook July Prior: +3.92K
9-July US DOE Short-Term Natural Gas Outlook July
Wednesday: Housing data on both sides of the border represent the key releases on Wednesday. Canadian housing starts in June are expected to increase 218k, down slightly from 221.3k. Weekly MBA mortgage applications in the U.S., along with Energy Information Administration inventory figures, are also scheduled for release.
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications W/E 4-July Prior: +3.6%
8:15 CA Housing Starts June Exp: +218.0K Prior: +221.3K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E 4-July Prior: -1982K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E 4-July Prior: +2100K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E 4-July Prior: +1264K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E 4-July Prior: +0.63%
14:00 US Fed Staff Economist Parkinson Testifies on Derivatives
Thursday: The day is U.S.-centric with Bernanke and U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson set to speak on top of the release of weekly jobless claims figures. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Paulson will testify at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on financial-market regulation, lending to investment banks and the Fed's powers. San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen and the Treasury's special envoy for China, Alan Holmer, are each holding speeches themselves.
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 5-July Exp: +395K Prior: +404K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E 28-June Exp: +3140K Prior: +3116K
10:00 US Bernanke, Paulson Testify on Markets Before House Committee
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E 4-July
13:00 US Tsy to Sell 10-Year TIPS
13:30 US ICSC Chain Store Sales (Y/Y) June Prior: +3.0%
15:30 US Fed's Yellen Speaks in Portland at Community Luncheon
19:00 US Treasury's Holmer Speaks in Minneapolis on U.S.-China Ties
Friday: On a busy day to end the week, the Canadian unemployment rate for June is expected to remain flat, while employment is expected to have increased by 10k. In the U.S., the University of Michigan consumer confidence preliminary reading for the same month will be released, expected to come in at 55.5, from 56.4.
7:00 CA Unemployment Rate June Exp: 6.1% Prior: 6.1%
7:00 CA Net Change in Employment June Exp: +10.0K Prior: +8.4K
8:30 CA International Merchandise Trade May Exp: +C$5.2 Prior: +C$5.1
8:30 CA New Housing Price Index (M/M) May Exp: +0.1% Prior: 0.0%
8:30 US Trade Balance May Exp: -$62.5B Prior: -$60.9B
8:30 US Import Price Index (M/M) June Exp: +2.0% Prior: +2.3%
8:30 US Import Price Index (Y/Y) June Exp: +18.6% Prior: +17.8%
10:00 US University of Michigan Confidence July Preliminary Exp: +55.5 Prior: +56.4
14:00 US Monthly Budget Statement June Exp: +$30.0B Prior: +$27.5B
By Ryan Szporer edited by Stephen Huebl