Last Friday was an interesting day for mortgage rates and the broader bond market. Rates began the day roughly in line with Thursday's latest levels, but bonds lost ground throughout the morning. Multiple lenders adjusted rates higher before 1:30pm. After that, headlines made the rounds regarding the potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, which sent bond yields lower. By the end of the day, many lenders adjusted rates slightly lower.
The new week began with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov making a series of comments that helped to moderate the more dire tone from Friday. Markets followed in lock step with rates rising to undo a majority of Friday's improvement. This left the average mortgage lender roughly in line with Friday's highs. That equates to 30yr fixed rates over 4.0% for most scenarios.
Russia/Ukraine headlines continued throughout the day. Although this did cause some volatility at times, markets progressively tuned out. Moreover, geopolitical risk is not destined to be the key market moving consideration unless things get appreciably worse. Even then, the primary narrative remains focused on inflation and the Fed's evolving policy response.