Every Bit As Quiet As It Was Supposed To Be
There's really no way to predict the future when it comes to rate movement in the coming days/weeks. But there are some times when probabilities are higher than normal for a certain baseline trend. In the case of late December, that baseline is for yields to hurry up and wait in a sideways pattern for more liquidity and more information on how omicron is playing out. Neither of those things will be in abundant supply for at least a week, so today's exceptionally flat performance is no surprise (or simply, less surprising than other potential outcomes).
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
Case Shiller Home Prices 18.4 vs 19.1 prev
FHFA Home Prices 17.4 vs 17.7 prev
Carbon copy of yesterday's overnight session. Flat in Tokyo. Closed in London. Roughly unchanged at domestic open. No major market movers.
AM gains hit resistance around 9:30am and we've been flat since then. 10yr yields down 1bp at 1.467 and 2.5 UMBS up 3 ticks (0.09) at 102-05 (102.16).
Moderate weakness after 5yr Treasury auction, but mostly in Treasuries. MBS are down 3 ticks (0.09) from the highs. 10yr yields are now up half a bp on the day at 1.482.
Bonds found footing shortly after the last update and have been sideways ever since. MBS back up to +3 ticks (+0.09) on the day. 10yr yield effectively unchanged.