As expected, the recent raft of hawkish Fed speakers foreshadowed (whether intentionally or coincidentally) a hawkish message in today's Fed minutes. At issue: "many" meeting participants felt that a December cut would NOT likely be justified as opposed to "several" who disagreed. This was compounded by the fact that BLS rescheduled the early December jobs report for 12/16/25--6 days after the December Fed meeting. In other words, there won't be any employment data that would help the Fed justify a cut next month. Fed Funds futures agreed with a spike in implied yields immediately following the BLS news. Longer-term bonds followed suit after the Fed Minutes.
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- ADP Weekly Payrolls
- -2.5k vs -11.25k prev
- Jobless Claims (October 18th)
- 232k vs 223k f'cast, 219k prev
- Factory Orders
- 1.4 vs 1.4 f'cast, -1.3 prev
- Builder Confidence
- 38 vs 37 f'cast, 37 prev
- Core Durable Goods (Aug)
- 0.4 vs 0.6 f'cast/prev
- ADP Weekly Payrolls
Slightly stronger overnight, but losing ground since 9:30am NYSE open. MBS unchanged and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.12
Bouncing back from AM weakness. MBS up 1 tick and 10yr up 0.9bps at 4.118
no reaction to Fed Minutes. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.106
Weakest levels of the day for MBS, down 2 ticks (.06). 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.123
Heading out near weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.128
MBS Market Alerts
