Bonds took a break from their recent trend of moderate day over day movement to hold relatively steady on Wednesday. Econ data didn't get in the way in any noticeable way. If anything, ISM data briefly helped bonds move away from the day's weaker levels. But the key underlying consideration was a stable, sideways performance in fuel prices. MBS and Treasuries were technically a hair weaker, but it's just as fair to say they were "unchanged." Familiar risks remain in the day's ahead depending on Iran war headlines and Friday's NFP.
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- ADP Employment
- 44k vs 70k f'cast, 95k prev
- ISM Biz Activity (Jul)
- 59.1 vs -- f'cast, 55.4 prev
- ISM N-Mfg PMI (Jul)
- 54.1 vs 54.5 f'cast, 54.0 prev
- ISM Services Employment (Jul)
- 47.4 vs -- f'cast, 51.2 prev
- ISM Services New Orders (Jul)
- 57.2 vs -- f'cast, 55.1 prev
- ISM Services Prices (Jul)
- 70.3 vs -- f'cast, 67.7 prev
- ADP Employment
Bonds set to open fairly flat after initial overnight gains and a modest pull-back. 10yr down half a bp at 4.611
No major reaction to ISM data, but some weakness in advance. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.628
MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 3.7 bps 4.267
Off weakest levels and holding sideways. MBS roughly unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.619
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