Orderly, Logical Rally as Bonds Reiterate Data Dependence

Today's recap isn't any different than the morning commentary.  The jobs report was demonstrably softer than the previous installment across the board, despite the top line nonfarm payroll count being just a hair higher than expected for the most recent month.  By the time revisions are considered, the labor market trend went from looking alarmingly resilient to predictably softer.  In other words, this is the jobs report trend that conventional wisdom expects with interest rates at these levels. The bond market took the opportunity to calmly confirm its adherence to the Fed's "data dependent" guidance with an orderly rally of moderately large size.  All in all, it was a perfectly agreeable jobs report day, and one that leaves a blank canvas for next week's CPI data.

Econ Data / Events
    • Nonfarm Payrolls
      • 206k vs 190k f'cast
      • last month revised down to 218k from 272k
    • Unemployment Rate
      • 4.1 vs 4.0 f'cast, 4.0 prev
    • Wages
      • 0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:47 AM

Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains after NFP.  10yr down 6.2bps at 4.298.  MBS up 6 ticks (.16).

11:26 AM

best levels of the day.  10yr down 8.3bps at 4.277.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28).

03:20 PM

Drifting sideways at best levels, perfectly in line with the previous update.

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