Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day

The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET.  There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could create more rally momentum, but also to the market's susceptibility to war-related headlines. 

Econ Data / Events
    • MBA Purchase Index (May)/01
      • 171.1 vs -- f'cast, 177.7 prev
    • MBA Refi Index (May)/01
      • 928.6 vs -- f'cast, 977.9 prev
    • Mortgage (Mar)ket Index (May)/01
      • 285.3 vs -- f'cast, 298.5 prev
    • ADP jobs (Apr)
      • 109K vs 99K f'cast, 62K prev
Market Movement Recap
08:16 AM

Stronger overnight on reports that a peace deal was within reach. Both sides have since refuted those reports. 10yr still down 5.7bps at 4.368 and MBS are starting out about 3/8ths higher.

11:19 AM

At best levels. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 7.6bps at 4.349

01:42 PM

holding near best levels. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 7.7bps at 4.348

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